Spirala w dół już się chyba zaczyna kręcić

Prrivan

A to ciekawe,Hong Kong wycofuje wszystkie swoje rezerwy złota z zagranicy i transportuje cały kruszec na własne terytorium...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-ko.....&rss=1

Cytat:

Sep 3, 2009, 4:29 a.m. EST
Hong Kong recalls gold reserves, says it can store it at home
Invites Asian states to store bullion in new facility, in bid to become gold hub

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring it to a newly-built high-security depository at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

The facility, industry professionals said, would support Hong Kong's emergence as Swiss-style bullion trading hub and help lessen dependency upon London as center of settlement and storage.

"Having a central government-sponsored vault would create a situation where you could conceivably look at Hong Kong as being a hub, where metal could be traded for the region," said Sunil Kashyap, managing director at Scotia Capital in Hong Kong, adding that the facility was the first with official government backing in the region.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which functions as the territory's unofficial central bank, will complete the transfer of its gold reserves form London by the end of the year, the Hong Kong government said in an earlier statement.

About half the HKMA's gold reserves are held in physical form, totaling about 2,000 bars valued at 250 million Hong Kong dollars ($32.35 million), according to estimates published by the South China Morning Post.

Traders said the new facility could also foster new financial products, such as precious-metals exchange-traded funds.

The 3,660-square foot depository, located at the city's main Chek Lap Kok Airport, will provide "storage facility for local and overseas government institutions," according to the government statement.

Martin Hennecke, a financial advisor with the Hong Kong-based Tyche Group Ltd. said that could be appealing to regional central banks unnerved after watching the global financial system teeter of verge of implosion last year.

"Central banks are increasing aware of the importance of having gold reserves at time of financial crisis and having it easily available at their own disposal," he said.

Local newspaper reports Thursday said the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had signed an agreement to use the depository for its physical settlement and storage needs.

Marketing efforts will be launched to convince Asian central banks transfer their gold reserves to the Hong Kong facility, according to reports citing Raymond Lai, finance director with the Hong Kong Airport Authority.

Efforts will also be made to reach out to commodity exchanges, banks, precious metals refiners and ETF providers, the reports said.

Management firm Value Partners planned to launch an ETF gold fund that will use Hong Kong instead of London as a repository for the gold backing the fund, local reports said Thursday.

Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.

hanuman

a dlaczego złoty taki silny ??

Cytat:

Wzrostowski przyjaciel HSBC

Autor: zezowaty Zorro o 18:11 Etykiety: eurpln, Rostowski

Oto mamy potwierdzenie zezowatej diagnozy sprzed miesiąca. Wzrostowski minister nie tylko obronił budżet i wzrost gospodarczy (dlatego na ksywę zasłużył), ale jeszcze - w tzw. międzyczasie - obronił złotówkę. Wychodzi na to, że ten - powiedzmy uczciwie - skromnej postury urzędnik gotów jeszcze jedną reką, w wolnej chwili, obronić Częstochowę. Jak to z obroną złotówki wygląda, to już napisałem, ale powtórzę: jedzie największe naganianie na umocnienie złotego w historii, i to jeszcze za unijne dotacje. Jak to się skończy, wiadomo z góry. Mało tego, jeszcze eksporterzy zostaną tradycyjnie ogoleni na opcjach, bo przecież złotówka taka mocna... Być ministrem, to jest coś, a być przyjacielem ministra, to jest takie coś, co się liczy w miliardach.

Pisze Szewczak w Gazecie Finansowej, prosto z mostu, jak zezowaty.

Ministerstwo Finansów pompuje kurs złotego

W lipcu, w okresie urlopowym, aktywa rezerwowe NBP wzrosły bardzo gwałtownie o niespotykaną kwotę 3,1 mld euro. To niewątpliwie efekt błyskawicznej, skomasowanej akcji wyprzedaży przez polski rząd środków unijnych, czyli wyprzedaży euro. Ministerstwo Finansów znokautowało wręcz kurs euro i tym samym napompowało kurs złotego.
Widać bardzo wyraźnie, że oto spekulanci, czy jak kto woli inwestorzy krótkoterminowi, wzięli złotego w obroty. Rolę naganiacza wziął tym razem na siebie HSBC. Inwestorzy ci na potęgę stosują w Polsce strategię carry trade, czyli zaciągają pożyczki w walutach o niskiej stopie procentowej, w dolarach (0,25 proc.), frankach (0,5 proc.), euro (1 proc.). Pozyskane w ten sposób środki lokują w walucie naszego kraju, w którym stopa procentowa wynosi 3,5 proc. i ponoć ma jeszcze wzrosnąć. Ale nie to jest najgroźniejsze.

Zbieżność w czasie
Najgroźniejsza jest zbieżność w czasie podobnych działań spekulacyjnych podjętych przez polskie Ministerstwo Finansów. W lipcu, w okresie urlopowym, aktywa rezerwowe NBP wzrosły bardzo gwałtownie o niespotykaną kwotę 3,1 mld euro. To niewątpliwie efekt błyskawicznej, skomasowanej akcji wyprzedaży przez polski rząd środków unijnych, czyli wyprzedaży euro. Ministerstwo Finansów znokautowało wręcz kurs euro i tym samym napompowało kurs złotego. W lipcu i sierpniu 2009 r. o blisko 40 gr podrożała złotówka. Dodatkowo nałożyły się na to wpływy ze sprzedaży obligacji dolarowych w lipcu (3,5 mld dolarów).

MF przyłącza się do gry
Nic dziwnego, że nadpłynność sektora bankowego w Polsce była w lipcu rekordowa i wyniosła blisko 25 mld złotych. To niesłychanie niebezpieczna gra ze strony rządu i Ministerstwa Finansów, po części skorelowana z działaniami spekulacyjnymi inwestorów krótkoterminowych. Pieniądze z Unii, które dostaliśmy jako zaliczkę, wykorzystano do łatania dziury budżetowej, która nadal zastraszająco rośnie. Takie operacje są nie tylko sprzeczne z ideą Unii Europejskiej, bowiem tego typu środki absolutnie nie powinny służyć finansowaniu bieżących potrzeb budżetu państwa, choć przez ten budżet przepływają, ani tym bardziej tuszować błędów popełnionych w walce z kryzysem przez Ministerstwo Finansów.

Co nas czeka?
Ale co najgorsze te operacje są nie do utrzymania na dłuższą metę i są niesłychanie kosztowne oraz całkowicie fałszują rzeczywisty stan polskiej gospodarki, a zwłaszcza polskich finansów publicznych. Już wkrótce może się okazać, że zwyczajnie zabraknie pieniędzy z UE na realizacje programów unijnych, zwłaszcza programów inwestycyjnych czy związanych z ochroną środowiska oraz innowacyjną gospodarką – a pierwsze tego symptomy są już widoczne. Dziś fundusze unijne ratują polski budżet 2009 r. przed katastrofą, a ministra przed kompromitacją. Z kolei budżet 2010 r. ma uratować totalna wyprzedaż resztek majątku narodowego. Co zatem uratuje polski budżet Anno Domini 2011? Unia polsko-katarska?

http://zezorro.blogspot.com/2009/09/wzrostowski-przyjaciel-hsbc.html

blundi

Byle do wyborów !
Uważam, że MF pompuje kurs złotego, bo wtedy maleje zadłużenie zagraniczne w przeliczeniu na PLN.
To rozmyślne działanie na szkodę Polski, ale w partyjnym interesie PO - za wszelką cenę nie dojść do limitu 55% zadłużenia, co wymuszało by budżet bez deficytu itp. Nie do zaakceptowania przed wyborami prezydenckimi.
_________________
http://www.projektcredo.pl

Prrivan

Narody Zjednoczone już otwarcie mówią o zastąpieniu dolara przez nową globalną walutę:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/curre.....ollar.html

Cytat:

UN wants new global currency to replace dollar
The dollar should be replaced with a global currency, the United Nations has said, proposing the biggest overhaul of the world's monetary system since the Second World War.

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Published: 6:45PM BST 07 Sep 2009

n a radical report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said the system of currencies and capital rules which binds the world economy is not working properly, and was largely responsible for the financial and economic crises.

It added that the present system, under which the dollar acts as the world's reserve currency , should be subject to a wholesale reconsideration.

Although a number of countries, including China and Russia, have suggested replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency, the UNCTAD report is the first time a major multinational institution has posited such a suggestion.

In essence, the report calls for a new Bretton Woods-style system of managed international exchange rates, meaning central banks would be forced to intervene and either support or push down their currencies depending on how the rest of the world economy is behaving.

The proposals would also imply that surplus nations such as China and Germany should stimulate their economies further in order to cut their own imbalances, rather than, as in the present system, deficit nations such as the UK and US having to take the main burden of readjustment.

"Replacing the dollar with an artificial currency would solve some of the problems related to the potential of countries running large deficits and would help stability," said Detlef Kotte, one of the report's authors. "But you will also need a system of managed exchange rates. Countries should keep real exchange rates [adjusted for inflation] stable. Central banks would have to intervene and if not they would have to be told to do so by a multilateral institution such as the International Monetary Fund."

The proposals, included in UNCTAD's annual Trade and Development Report , amount to the most radical suggestions for redesigning the global monetary system.

Although many economists have pointed out that the economic crisis owed more to the malfunctioning of the post-Bretton Woods system, until now no major institution, including the G20 , has come up with an alternative.

To ogłosili wczoraj,a teraz patrzcie co dzieje się z dolarem :

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w Shocked

tomeq

to ja dorzucę artykuł z money.pl
http://www.money.pl/pieniadze/wiadomosci.....29719.html

Cytat:

Międzynarodowy system walutowy wymaga gruntownej rewizji. Dolara, będącego obecnie główną walutą rezerwową, powinna w tej roli zastąpić nowa jednostka płatnicza - rekomenduje Konferencja Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Handlu i Rozwoju.

Od chwili wybuchu kryzysu finansowego przedstawiciele największych krajów rozwijających się (tzw. BRIC - Brazylia, Rosja, Indie, Chiny) wielokrotnie sugerowali, że międzynarodowy system walutowy wymaga reformy. Także wielu ekonomistów zgadza się, że jest to konieczne, aby w przyszłości można było zapobiec powtórce takich zawirowań na rynkach finansowych i w gospodarce, z jakimi mamy obecnie do czynienia. ONZ jest jednak pierwszą ważną organizacją międzynarodową, która przyłączyła się do tych apeli.

O ile jednak sugestie państw BRIC ograniczają się przede wszystkim do tego, aby ważniejszą funkcję w nowym systemie walutowym przyznać Specjalnym Prawom Ciągnienia (tzw. SDR-om), czyli jednostce rozrachunkowej Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego, ONZ proponuje znacznie głębsze zmiany. Potrzebna jest inicjatywa podobna do systemu z Bretton Woods lub Europejskiego Systemu Walutowego - oznajmił współautor raportu Heiner Flassbeck.

Według ONZ, państwa członkowskie powinny utworzyć światowy bank rezerwowy, który emitowałby nową walutę oraz kontrolowałby, czy poszczególne kraje utrzymują względem niej sztywny realny kurs swoich jednostek płatniczych.

Jak podkreśla oenzetowska agenda, reżim kontrolowanych kursów walutowych pozwoliłby państwom wschodzącym uniezależnić się od wahań nastrojów na międzynarodowych rynkach finansowych. Najważniejszą lekcją płynącą z kryzysu finansowego jest ta, że rynki finansowe nie ustalają poprawnie kursów - twierdzi Flassbeck.

Prrivan

Złoto wskoczyło powyżej 1000$,dolar najniżej w tym roku:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/arti.....AD9AJB9680

Cytat:

Dollar hits low for year as gold tops $1,000

By TALI ARBEL (AP) – 11 hours ago

NEW YORK — The dollar fell to a low for the year Tuesday as gold prices shot above $1,000 an ounce before giving some ground and investors switched funds into riskier investments.

Commitments from global leaders this weekend to continue underwriting the global recovery helped drive investors away from the "safe haven" dollar and into emerging-market currencies and equities, analysts said.

Published comments from a Chinese government official in a British newspaper knocking the Federal Reserve's policy of buying bonds also drove the dollar lower, said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FXSolutions.

"The Chinese have serious influence," he said. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, and its buying of U.S. debt enables the government to fund its deficit spending.

The 16-nation euro rose as high as $1.4535 in afternoon trading, its highest level this year, from $1.4337 late Monday, before backtracking to $1.4490 in later trading.

The British pound rose to $1.6494 from $1.6335, while the dollar dropped to 92.27 Japanese yen from 92.96 yen.

The dollar index fell as low as 77.05 against a basket of six major world currencies that includes the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. That's its lowest since last September.

Markets have been rising after finance officials from the Group of 20 leading economies pledged to maintain government spending, low interest rates and expansion of the money supply in order to buck up the global economy. The ministers met this weekend in London.

Those moves could help boost economic activity and liquidity in financial markets, but can weigh on the value of a currency. The current U.S. rate near zero means investors can earn better returns on their funds in countries with higher yields, such as, for example, Poland, Turkey, Brazil and Australia.

"People are loading up on high-yielders," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, as they get more optimistic about the global economy's growth outlook.

A report from a United Nations agency released on Monday also called for a reduced role for the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. And in an interview published on Sunday, Cheng Siwei, a Chinese official, knocked the Fed's policy of buying bonds as an inflation trigger that will undermine the dollar.

The Federal Reserve has committed to buying up to $300 billion in longterm Treasurys to boost liquidity in financial markets and hold down interest rates.

"Most of our foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies," the Chinese official said in the interview in the U.K.'s Telegraph newspaper.

China and Russia have been vocal this year about the need to diversify reserves away from the dollar as its value dropped. Chinese officials have called for the creation of a new global reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund.

Siwei's interview and the U.N. report have "drawn attention back to the fact that we have twin deficits and low interest rates," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. That's "simply feeding into current negative dollar sentiment" as sovereign nations gradually sell their U.S. dollars.

There's an assumption that "when Chinese officials speak on this topic they are not doing it without having their remarks vetted by the Chinese government," Trevisani said. Whether that is true or not, he said, "you assume that there is some warning here."

China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, trimmed its holdings, to $776.4 billion in June from $801.5 billion in May. Russia also reduced its holdings 3.7 percent to $119.9 billion in June.

The price of gold, meanwhile, shot past $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February. Gold for December delivery peaked at $1,009.40, the highest since March 2008, on the New York Mercantile Exchange before falling back to $999. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar.

Other currencies also climbed against the dollar, especially those in countries which are major exporters of commodities, as oil prices gained more than $2. A strong economy would use more commodities in factories and transportation.

The New Zealand dollar hit its strongest point since last September at 69.83 U.S. cents, while the Australian dollar peaked at 86.58 U.S. cents, its highest level in more than a year. The dollar dropped to 1.0811 Canadian dollars from 1.0763 and tumbled to 1.8250 Brazilian reals from 1.8445 reals late Monday.

In other trading, the dollar hit a low for 2009 against the Swiss franc at 1.0428 on Tuesday, down from 1.0597 late Monday. It later traded at 1.0462 Swiss francs.

Dług federalny USA był wysoki-a urośnie jeszcze bardziej:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/57493.....-above-12t

Cytat:

Senate must raise debt ceiling above $12T
By Walter Alarkon - 09/07/09 12:11 PM ET

The Senate must move legislation to raise the federal debt limit beyond $12.1 trillion by mid-October, a move viewed as necessary despite protests about the record levels of red ink.

The move will highlight the nation’s record debt, which has been central to Republican attacks against Democratic congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The year’s deficit is expected to hit a record $1.6 trillion.

Democrats in control of Congress, including then-Sen. Obama (Ill.), blasted President George W. Bush for failing to contain spending when he oversaw increased deficits and raised the debt ceiling.

“Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren,” Obama said in a 2006 floor speech that preceded a Senate vote to extend the debt limit. “America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.”

Obama later joined his Democratic colleagues in voting en bloc against raising the debt increase.

Now Obama is asking Congress to raise the debt ceiling, something lawmakers are almost certain to do despite misgivings about the federal debt. The ceiling already has been hiked three times in the past two years, and the House took action earlier this year to raise the ceiling to $13 trillion.

Congress has little choice. Failing to raise the cap could lead the nation to default in mid-October, when the debt is expected to exceed its limit, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said. In August, Geithner asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to increase the debt limit as soon as possible.

Changing the debt cap “does provide an opportunity to look at fiscal policy and what its failings are, and ideally it could give both sides an opportunity to think about what we need to do so we don't keep raising the debt limit,” said Robert Bixby, the executive director of the Concord Coalition, a fiscal watchdog group.

“But probably as a practical matter, it will get more attention as a partisan back-and-forth,” Bixby said.

When the House raised the debt limit to $13 trillion as part of a budget resolution approved in April, Democratic leaders used a maneuver known as the “Gephardt rule,” named after former House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt (Mo.), to avoid taking a roll call vote on the debt limit increase.

The Senate isn’t so lucky. It lacks a similar mechanism, meaning each senator must cast a politically perilous vote on raising the debt ceiling.

The Senate Finance Committee will “carefully review Treasury's request on behalf of the American taxpayers,” according to an aide to the committee's chairman, Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.).

“Sen. Baucus understands the critical importance of signaling to the world that the U.S. maintains the confidence and security to continue to lead the global economy out of recession,” the Baucus aide said. “The request to raise the debt limit is serious and must be addressed thoroughly and in a nonpartisan manner.”

The aide noted that Baucus is pressing the Treasury Department to be more transparent about its efforts to pull the economy out of recession.

“He will continue to demand the necessary communication and cooperation going forward,” the aide said.

Both the White House and the independent Congressional Budget Office last month said that they expect the debt to increase by another $9 trillion over the next decade. Should the Senate follow the House's lead and set the new debt limit at $13 trillion, lawmakers would probably have to raise the limit again next year, when the Obama administration expects to run a $1.5 trillion deficit.

The business community has supported Geithner's push for a higher debt ceiling. Bruce Josten, the top lobbyist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said it's essential to the U.S. economy.

“If we fail to address this in a timely fashion, then you run the risk of having to curtail government operations,” Josten said. “The last thing our economy and the world economy needs is greater uncertainty throughout global credit markets.”

Josten said that the high level of debt is a reality during the recession, but it's unsustainable and needs to be reduced by reforming Medicare and Social Security.

“While we can freely and openly acknowledge completely and lobby to raise the debt ceiling and incur some more debt, the longer trends ultimately need to be reversed,” he said.

Congress raised the debt limit just a few months ago when it passed the $787 billion stimulus package.

Prrivan

Po okresie krótkotrwałego optymizmu na Ukrainie,kryzys uderza ze zdwojoną siłą:

http://biznes.onet.pl/druga-fala-kryzysu.....rasa-detal

Cytat:

Druga fala kryzysu u naszych sąsiadów. MSW: będziecie jeść więzienne suchary!
9 września 2009

Nasi wschodni sąsiedzi masowo wymieniają hrywny na dolary. Kurs narodowej waluty Ukrainy spadł już do rekordowo niskiego poziomu z początku kryzysu. Szef MSW grozi kierownictwu banku centralnego: waszym następnym posiłkiem będą więzienne suchary - donosi "Gazeta Wyborcza".

Wydawało się, że Ukraińcy najgorsze mają już za sobą. W pierwszych dwóch kwartałach PKB spadło o 20 proc., ludzie masowo wycofywali pieniądze z banków, a przed kompletnym zawałem gospodarki Kijów uratował kredyt stabilizacyjny z MFW - podaje gazeta.

Okazało się jednak, że zaufanie Ukraińców do systemu bankowego nie wróciło - od początku roku wypłacili z banków równowartość 5,4 mld dol. i zamienili to na walutę.

jak zauważa gazeta, po zniesieniu zakazu zrywania lokat ludność zaczęła wypłacać pieniądze jeszcze szybciej, a hrywna zaczęła z tygodnia na tydzień tracić na wartości. Dziś trzeba za jednego dolara zapłacić 8,9 hrywien, tyle, ile w najgorszym dla Ukrainy grudniu 2008 r. - Ludność nie wierzy w hrywnę - tłumaczą bankierzy.

Bank Centralny Ukrainy (NBU) jest w kropce. Spadek kursu hrywny może zupełnie pogrążyć ukraińską gospodarkę - alarmuje "Gazeta Wyborcza".

Ordel

„Kolejny kryzys finansowy nieunikniony”

Kolejny kryzys finansowy jest nieunikniony bo natura ludzka zawsze będzie zmierzać ku ekscesom spekulacji w okresie stabilnej prosperity, twierdzi były szef Fed Alan Greenspan.
- Kryzys znów się zdarzy, ale będzie inny – powiedział Greenspan w programie BBC Two zatytułowanym 'The Love of Money'. – Wynika to z nienasyconej natury człowieka, skonfrontowanej z długim okresem prosperity, o którym myśli się, że będzie nadal trwał – dodał.

Były szef Fed był w ostatnim czasie oskarżany o przyczynienie się do obecnego kryzysu. Greenspan broni się twierdząc, że nikt nie może zapobiec kryzysom, gdyż ich przyczyny są głębsze niż się uważa.

- Mają początek w spekulacyjnej gorączce, której konsekwencje naznaczyły historię świata od XVIII, XIX wieku. To natura ludzka: dopóki ktoś nie znajdzie drogi do zmiany ludzkiej natury będziemy mieli kolejne kryzysy – powiedział Greenspan.

http://www.pb.pl/a/2009/09/09/Kolejny_kr.....=1#comment

wnioski nasuwają sie same , ktoś mąci , bo go to kręci .
_________________
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K4J90s1A2M

Prrivan

USA oskarżyły Chiny o złamanie prawa handlowego i w trybie natychmiastowym podniosły cło na wyroby stalowe z państwa środka z 11 do 31%:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con.....c-business

Cytat:

U.S. Says China Violated Trade Law
Tariffs Imposed as Subsidies to Pipe Makers Called Illegal

By Peter Whoriskey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 10, 2009

In one of the largest U.S.-China trade cases ever, the U.S. Commerce Department has issued a preliminary finding that Chinese steel pipe producers have received government subsidies in violation of trade law, helping them overrun the competition.

The volume of steel pipes imported from China more than tripled between 2006 and 2008, rising from $632 million to $2.6 billion, according to the Commerce Department.

The subsidies from the Chinese government allowed the firms to overwhelm their U.S. rivals, according to six U.S. companies that filed the complaint along with the United Steelworkers union. The companies alleged that their Chinese rivals received discounts on raw materials and loans from government-owned firms.

To even the playing field, the Commerce Department has ordered that tariffs ranging from an estimated 11 percent to 31 percent be imposed on the steel pipes from China.

The steel pipes at issue in the case are those used primarily by the oil and gas industry. They are known as "oil country tubular goods." By dollar volume of imports in the industry, the case represents the largest U.S.-China trade case ever, attorneys said.

The ruling "means that from this day on that U.S. producers won't have to compete against the government of China," said Roger Schagrin, an attorney who represented the United Steelworkers and four U.S. makers of steel pipe in the case. "They can have a chance to recover."
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The tariffs go into effect immediately, but since the finding is preliminary, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials will collect cash deposits or bonds. If the preliminary finding is not upheld, the money will be returned.

The onset of the global recession appears to have set off an increase in trade disputes around the world.

Globally, new requests for protection from imports in the first half of 2009 are up 18.5 percent over the first half of 2008, according to the World Bank-sponsored Global Antidumping Database organized by Chad P. Bown, a Brandeis University economics professor. That increase follows a 44 percent increase in new investigations in 2008.

While U.S. companies sometimes applaud new trade measures that enable them to compete, some of the companies that import products say they could be hurt by rising tariffs.

"We're worried about increasing costs for people using these products," said Lewis Lebowitz, counsel to the Consuming Industries Trade Action Coalition, a group that advocates for industries that rely on imports. "It's by far the largest trade case that has been filed against China so far. There's just a lot of cases now that are filed against China."

Chiny ostro protestują:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i12JmOGsspuSkd21LqGhNBMGpsZg

Cytat:

China condemns US tariffs on steel pipes

(AFP) – 6 hours ago

BEIJING — China on Thursday condemned a US decision to slap tariffs on steel pipes from the mainland, as US President Barack Obama mulled whether to also curb tire imports from the Asian giant.

The twin disputes are a litmus test for Obama's trade policy with Beijing, and are coming to the forefront ahead of his highly anticipated first presidential visit to China set for November.

In July, Obama laid out his vision of "cooperation, not confrontation" between Washington and Beijing, saying the relationship would "shape the 21st century" -- but the thorny trade issues could throw a spanner in the works.

The US Commerce Department said Wednesday it had made a preliminary decision to impose duties of as much as 31 percent on Chinese carbon or alloy tubular steel products used in oil and gas wells, following claims they were backed by unfair subsidies.

That announcement drew a quick and angry response from Beijing.

"China is highly concerned over this matter. We strongly oppose such trade protectionist moves," a commerce ministry spokeswoman told AFP.

The spokeswoman declined to comment on what action China would take, if any, in response to the US move, saying the ministry could make an additional statement later in the day.

From 2006 to 2008, US imports of such pipes -- officially known as oil country tubular goods (OCTG) -- from China increased 203 percent by volume, the statement said. They were valued at 2.6 billion dollars last year.

The Commerce Department launched a probe into the case after complaints from various US industry groups and unions, including the United States Steel Corporation, and the United Steel, Paper and Forestry, Rubber, Manufacturing, Energy, Allied Industrial and Service Workers International Union.

"As a result of this preliminary determination, Commerce will instruct US Customs and Border Protection to collect a cash deposit or bond based on these preliminary rates," the department said in a statement.

It will issue a "final determination" on the issue in November, it said.

"This is the largest countervailing duty and dumping case filed against China, based on the value of trade," a lawyer representing a Chinese company involved in the case, told AFP.

The decision came as Obama faces pressure to slap punitive duties on Chinese tire imports -- and save jobs at home as the world's largest economy tries to recover from a brutal recession.

The quasi-judicial US International Trade Commission has proposed tariffs of up to 55 percent on Chinese passenger and light truck tires based on a petition led by the United Steelworkers Union that tire imports had tripled since 2004, forcing plant shutdowns and the loss of 5,100 jobs.

The office of the US Trade Representative held a public hearing on the proposal and submitted its recommendation to Obama last week.

Obama is required to make his decision by September 17, ahead of hosting Chinese President Hu Jintao at the G20 summit in the US city of Pittsburgh on September 24-25.

If Obama rejects the tire proposal, he will disappoint unions and some leaders in his Democratic party. But if he embraces the plan, he will anger China as the two countries try to build a new relationship.

The American Coalition for Free Trade in Tires, which represents the tire distribution and retail sectors, has said thousands of American jobs -- as many as 25,000 -- would be at risk if Obama accepts the tariff recommendation.

The United States has been grappling with a ballooning trade deficit with China amid allegations that Beijing has been manipulating its currency to make its exports more competitive.

Obama entered the White House in January after campaigning for a robust trade policy with China.

His administration has prodded China, now the third-largest buyer of US exports, to act swiftly on market reforms, saying American producers needed enhanced market access now to save and create jobs at home.

Manix

No juz sie zaczynaja pierwsze podmuchy wychodzenia z oka huraganu

Zloto dzisaj po 1010 $
USD index 76,50

Deutsche Bank z tykajaca bomba 90 bilionow w derivatach o krok od upadku.

Co prawda nie bardzo wieze zeby pozwolili upasc Deutsche Bank przed wyborami ale

zostalo juz naprawde niewiele czasu.

Obawiam sie ze bedziemy w najbliszej przyszlosci swiadkami jak caly system sie rozsypie niczym domek z kart.

A to co pozostanie to tylko popiol i zgliszcza.

PS"

Tymczasem stada baranow i klikajacych malp pedzi sie na rzez ( indexy gieldowe jeszcze nadspodziewanie dobrze sie trzymaja )

Kyuss

Ciekawostka:

Dow Jones na zamknięciu 11 września 2001 9,605.51
Dow Jones na zamknięciu 11 września 2009 9,605.41

http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/09.....arted.html
_________________
The storm is coming.

Prrivan

Media milczą sobie w najlepsze a wojna handlowa pomiędzy USA a Chinami która zaczęła się ledwie w piątek coraz bardziej się rozkręca:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f67c6fe6-a024-.....ck_check=1

Cytat:

US tyre duties spark clash

By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Tom Braithwaite in Washington

Published: September 13 2009 06:53 | Last updated: September 14 2009 02:21

A full-blown trade row erupted on Sunday night between the US and China after Beijing accused Washington of “rampant protectionism” for imposing heavy duties on imported Chinese tyres and threatened action against imports of US poultry and vehicles.

Trade relations between two of the world’s biggest economies deteriorated after Barack Obama, US president, signed an order late on Friday to impose a new duty of 35 per cent on Chinese tyre imports on top of an existing 4 per cent tariff.

In his first big test on world trade since taking office in January, Mr Obama sided with America’s trade unions, which have complained that a “surge” in imports of Chinese-made tyres had caused 7,000 job losses among US factory workers.

Chen Deming, China’s minister of commerce, condemned the decision, saying that it “sends the wrong signal to the world” at a time when Washington and Beijing should be co-operating to deal with the worst economic and financial crisis in decades.

“This is a grave act of trade protectionism,” Mr Chen said in a statement. “Not only does it violate WTO rules, it contravenes commitments the United States government made at the [April] G20 financial summit.”

China said it would now investigate imports of US poultry and vehicles, responding to complaints from domestic companies.

The US warned Beijing against taking retaliatory action. “Retaliation would be inappropriate, as the United States acted entirely within the bounds of trade laws and within the safeguard provision that China itself agreed to upon accession to the World Trade Organisation,” said an official from the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

US officials said they were scrutinising the export of poultry and vehicles, but said any action in retaliation by China could result in a complaint by the US to the WTO.

The dispute comes less than a fortnight before Mr Obama is due to host world leaders at a summit of G20 nations in Pittsburgh and ahead of his planned visit to China in November.

The decision to impose extra tyre tariffs followed a petition by the United Steelworkers union, which represents workers at many US tyre factories. Official US figures show an increase in imports by volume from 14.6m tyres in 2004 to 46m in 2008. The US data shows that the value of tyre imports from China increased from $453.3m in 2004 to $1.8bn in 2008. Four US plants closed in 2006 and 2007 and three more are likely to be closed this year. US production capacity has fallen by 17.8 per cent in the past four years, according to the official data.

Eswar Prasad, professor of trade economics at Cornell University, warned that the disagreement could escalate. “These protectionist measures, some of which amount to domestic political posturing rather than substantive restraints on trade, could easily ratchet up into a full-blown trade war and inflict serious economic damage on both countries,” he said.

Dolar tanieje w oczach,napięcie rośnie...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme.....risis.html

Cytat:

Cheap dollars are sowing the seeds of the next world crisis

After years of selling cheap goods to debt-fuelled Western consumers, China now has $2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves. That's 2,000 billion – a reserve haul no less 25 times bigger than that of the UK.

By Liam Halligan
Published: 6:05PM BST 12 Sep 2009

Comments 49 | Comment on this article

In a world of systemic instability, reserves mean power. Reserves mean you can defend your currency, stabilise your banking system and boost your economy without resorting to yet more borrowing – or, worse still, the printing press.

More than half of China's reserves are denominated in dollars. So when the dollar falls, China loses serious money. When you're talking about a dollar-reserve number involving 12 zeros, even a modest weakening of the greenback sees China's wealth takes a mighty hit.

In recent years, America has run massive budget and trade deficits, both of which put downward pressure on the dollar – so devaluing China's reserves. Beijing has remained tight-lipped, worried less about diplomatic niceties than the financial implications of voicing its concerns. If the markets thought China would buy less dollar-denominated debt going forward, the US currency would weaken further, compounding Beijing's wealth-loss.

American leaders have relied on this Catch-22 for some time, guffawing that China is in so deep it has no choice but to carry on "sucking-up" US debt. But Beijing's Communist hierarchy is now so worried about America's wildly expansionary monetary policy that it is speaking out, despite the damage that does to the value of China's reserves.

Last weekend, Cheng Siwei, a leading Chinese policy maker, said that his country's leaders were "dismayed" by America's recourse to quantitative easing. "If they keep printing money to buy bonds, it will lead to inflation," he said. "So we'll diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen and other currencies".

This is hugely significant. China is now more worried about America inflating away its debts than about those debts being exposed to currency risk. Economists at Western banks making money from QE still say deflation is more likely than inflation. As this column has long argued, they are talking self-serving tosh.

The entire non-Western world rightly sees serious inflationary pressures down the track in the US, UK and other nations where political cowardice has resulted in irresponsible money printing.

Following Mr Cheng's comments, the dollar fell throughout last week, hitting a 12-month low against the euro. As the dollar's "safe haven" status was questioned, gold surged above $1,000 an ounce to an 18-month high.

The US currency could well keep falling. America's trade deficit grew in July at the fastest rate in almost a decade. Imports exceeded exports by $32bn last month – a gap 16pc wider than the month before. One reason was that as oil prices strengthened, so did the cost of US crude imports.

Oil touched $72 a barrel last week. If the greenback weakens further, prices will keep going up. That's because crude is priced in dollars and global investors will increasingly use commodities as an anti-inflation hedge.

These forces could combine to send the dollar into freefall. US inflation would then soar and interest rates would have to be jacked up. Even if a fast-collapsing dollar is avoided, Fed rates may have to rise quickly if China is serious about dollar-divesting and the US has to sell its debt elsewhere. Under both scenarios, the world's largest economy could get caught in the stagflation trap – recession and high inflation.

Beijing doesn't want the US to stagnate. China has too much to lose. But even if China and US work together to avoid a meltdown, the currency markets could provide one anyway.

The dollar is now being used as a "carry" currency. Traders are using low Fed rates to take out cheap dollar loans, then converting the money into currencies generating higher yields.

"Carrying" credit in this way is currently the source of huge gains. No one knows the true scale, but the world has, of course, been flooded with cheap dollars.

This presents serious systemic danger. A dollar weighed down by Chinese divestment, then suppressed further by carry-trading, could easily spring back. Those who had borrowed in dollars would owe more, while their dollar-funded investments would be worth less. This "unwinding" could send financial shock around the globe.

This is what happened in 1998, when yen carry-trades went wrong, causing the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and sparking a global slowdown.

So even if the Western world manages to fix its banking system, the Fed's money printing could well be stoking up the next financial crisis. The dollar carry-trade. You heard it here first.

Prrivan

Chyba najlepsze podsumowanie kryzysu finansowego i jego efektów zawiera ponizszy artykuł.

Czy wiecie że u wybrzeży Singapuru dryfuje sobie właśnie flotylla statków handlowych większa niż połączone floty USA i UK- flotylla statków duchów porzuconych przez właścicieli którzy nie byli w stanie ich utrzymać?

Najpierw zdjątko:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/09/0.....34x403.jpg

i relacja...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/.....z0R04TnM2N

Cytat:

Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession

By Simon Parry

Last updated at 6:34 PM on 13th September 2009

* Comments (15)
* Add to My Stories

The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year.

The tropical waters that lap the jungle shores of southern Malaysia could not be described as a paradisical shimmering turquoise. They are more of a dark, soupy green. They also carry a suspicious smell. Not that this is of any concern to the lone Indian face that has just peeped anxiously down at me from the rusting deck of a towering container ship; he is more disturbed by the fact that I may be a pirate, which, right now, on top of everything else, is the last thing he needs.

His appearance, in a peaked cap and uniform, seems rather odd; an officer without a crew. But there is something slightly odder about the vast distance between my jolly boat and his lofty position, which I can't immediately put my finger on.

Then I have it - his 750ft-long merchant vessel is standing absurdly high in the water. The low waves don't even bother the lowest mark on its Plimsoll line. It's the same with all the ships parked here, and there are a lot of them. Close to 500. An armada of freighters with no cargo, no crew, and without a destination between them.
Simon Parry among the ships in southern Malaysia

Simon Parry among the ships in southern Malaysia

My ramshackle wooden fishing boat has floated perilously close to this giant sheet of steel. But the face is clearly more scared of me than I am of him. He shoos me away and scurries back into the vastness of his ship. His footsteps leave an echo behind them.

Navigating a precarious course around the hull of this Panama-registered hulk, I reach its bow and notice something else extraordinary. It is tied side by side to a container ship of almost the same size. The mighty sister ship sits empty, high in the water again, with apparently only the sailor and a few lengths of rope for company.

Nearby, as we meander in searing midday heat and dripping humidity between the hulls of the silent armada, a young European officer peers at us from the bridge of an oil tanker owned by the world's biggest container shipping line, Maersk. We circle and ask to go on board, but are waved away by two Indian crewmen who appear to be the only other people on the ship.

'They are telling us to go away,' the boat driver explains. 'No one is supposed to be here. They are very frightened of pirates.'

Here, on a sleepy stretch of shoreline at the far end of Asia, is surely the biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history. Their numbers are equivalent to the entire British and American navies combined; their tonnage is far greater. Container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers - all should be steaming fully laden between China, Britain, Europe and the US, stocking camera shops, PC Worlds and Argos depots ahead of the retail pandemonium of 2009. But their water has been stolen.

They are a powerful and tangible representation of the hurricanes that have been wrought by the global economic crisis; an iron curtain drawn along the coastline of the southern edge of Malaysia's rural Johor state, 50 miles east of Singapore harbour.
Fisherman Ah Wat

'We don't understand why they are here. There are so many ships but no one seems to be on board,' said local fisherman Ah Wat

It is so far off the beaten track that nobody ever really comes close, which is why these ships are here. The world's ship owners and government economists would prefer you not to see this symbol of the depths of the plague still crippling the world's economies.

So they have been quietly retired to this equatorial backwater, to be maintained only by a handful of bored sailors. The skeleton crews are left alone to fend off the ever-present threats of piracy and collisions in the congested waters as the hulls gather rust and seaweed at what should be their busiest time of year.

Local fisherman Ah Wat, 42, who for more than 20 years has made a living fishing for prawns from his home in Sungai Rengit, says: 'Before, there was nothing out there - just sea. Then the big ships just suddenly came one day, and every day there are more of them.

'Some of them stay for a few weeks and then go away. But most of them just stay. You used to look Christmas from here straight over to Indonesia and see nothing but a few passing boats. Now you can no longer see the horizon.'

The size of the idle fleet becomes more palpable when the ships' lights are switched on after sunset. From the small fishing villages that dot the coastline, a seemingly endless blaze of light stretches from one end of the horizon to another. Standing in the darkness among the palm trees and bamboo huts, as calls to prayer ring out from mosques further inland, is a surreal and strangely disorientating experience. It makes you feel as if you are adrift on a dark sea, staring at a city of light.

Ah Wat says: 'We don't understand why they are here. There are so many ships but no one seems to be on board. When we sail past them in our fishing boats we never see anyone. They are like real ghost ships and some people are scared of them. They believe they may bring a curse with them and that there may be bad spirits on the ships.'
Two container ships tied together in Sungai Rengit, southern Malaysia

Two container ships tied together in southern Malaysia, waiting for the next charter

As daylight creeps across the waters, flags of convenience from destinations such as Panama and the Bahamas become visible. In reality, though, these vessels belong to some of the world's biggest Western shipping companies. And the sickness that has ravaged them began far away - in London, where the industry's heart beats, and where the plummeting profits and hugely reduced cargo prices are most keenly felt.

The Aframax-class oil tanker is the camel of the world's high seas. By definition, it is smaller than 132,000 tons deadweight and with a breadth above 106ft. It is used in the basins of the Black Sea, the North Sea, the Caribbean Sea, the China Sea and the Mediterranean - or anywhere where non-OPEC exporting countries have harbours and canals too small to accommodate very large crude carriers (VLCC) or ultra-large crude carriers (ULCCs). The term is based on the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) tanker rate system and is an industry standard.
A couple of years ago these ships would be steaming back and forth. Now 12 per cent are doing nothing

You may wish to know this because, if ever you had an irrational desire to charter one, now would be the time. This time last year, an Aframax tanker capable of carrying 80,000 tons of cargo would cost £31,000 a day ($50,000). Now it is about £3,400 ($5,500).

This is why the chilliest financial winds anywhere in the City of London are to be found blowing through its 400-plus shipping brokers.

Between them, they manage about half of the world's chartering business. The bonuses are long gone. The last to feel the tail of the economic whiplash, they - and their insurers and lawyers - await a wave of redundancies and business failures in the next six months. Commerce is contracting, fleets rust away - yet new ship-builds ordered years ago are still coming on stream.
World shipping is tracked by satellite service Vesseltracker

World shipping is tracked by satellite service Vesseltracker

Just 12 months ago these financiers and brokers were enjoying fat bonuses as they traded cargo space. But nobody wants the space any more, and those that still need to ship goods across the world are demanding vast reductions in price.

Do not tell these men and women about green shoots of recovery. As Briton Tim Huxley, one of Asia's leading ship brokers, says, if the world is really pulling itself out of recession, then all these idle ships should be back on the move.
South China Sea map

'This is the time of year when everyone is doing all the Christmas stuff,' he points out.

'A couple of years ago those ships would have been steaming back and forth, going at full speed. But now you've got something like 12 per cent of the world's container ships doing nothing.'

Aframaxes are oil bearers. But the slump is industry-wide. The cost of sending a 40ft steel container of merchandise from China to the UK has fallen from £850 plus fuel charges last year to £180 this year. The cost of chartering an entire bulk freighter suitable for carrying raw materials has plunged even further, from close to £185,000 ($300,000) last summer to an incredible £6,100 ($10,000) earlier this year.

Business for bulk carriers has picked up slightly in recent months, largely because of China's rediscovered appetite for raw materials such as iron ore, says Huxley. But this is a small part of international trade, and the prospects for the container ships remain bleak.

Some experts believe the ratio of container ships sitting idle could rise to 25 per cent within two years in an extraordinary downturn that shipping giant Maersk has called a 'crisis of historic dimensions'. Last month the company reported its first half-year loss in its 105-year history.

Martin Stopford, managing director of Clarksons, London's biggest ship broker, says container shipping has been hit particularly hard: 'In 2006 and 2007 trade was growing at 11 per cent. In 2008 it slowed down by 4.7 per cent. This year we think it might go down by as much as eight per cent. If it costs £7,000 a day to put the ship to sea and if you only get £6,000 a day, than you have got a decision to make.

'Yet at the same time, the supply of container ships is growing. This year, supply could be up by around 12 per cent and demand is down by eight per cent. Twenty per cent spare is a lot of spare of anything - and it's come out of nowhere.'

These empty ships should be carrying Christmas over to the West. All retailers will have already ordered their stock for the festive season long ago. With more than 92 per cent of all goods coming into the UK by sea, much of it should be on its way here if it is going to make it to the shelves before Christmas.

Large ships off the coastline close to Sungai Rengit

Lights from the fleet of ships illuminate the night-time horizon

But retailers are running on very low stock levels, not only because they expect consumer spending to be down, but also because they simply do not have the same levels of credit that they had in the past and so are unable to keep big stockpiles.

Stopford explains: 'Globalisation and shipping go hand in hand. Worldwide, we ship about 8.2 billion tons of cargo a year. That's more than one ton per person and probably two to three tons for richer people like us in the West. If the total goes down by five per cent or so, that's a lot of cargo that isn't moving.'

The knock-on effect of so many ships sitting idle rather than moving consumer goods between Asia and Europe could become apparent in Britain in the months ahead.

'We will find out at Christmas whether there are enough PlayStations in the shops or not. There will certainly be fewer goods coming in to Britain during the run-up to Christmas.'

Three thousand miles north-east of the ghost fleet of Johor, the shipbuilding capital of the world rocks to an unpunctuated chorus of hammer-guns blasting rivets the size of dustbin lids into shining steel panels that are then lowered onto the decks of massive new vessels.

As the shipping industry teeters on the brink of collapse, the activity at boatyards like Mokpo and Ulsan in South Korea all looks like a sick joke. But the workers in these bustling shipyards, who teem around giant tankers and mega-vessels the length of several football pitches and capable of carrying 10,000 or more containers each, have no choice; they are trapped in a cruel time warp.
There have hardly been any new orders. In 2011 the shipyards will simply run out of ships to build

A decade ago, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung (who died last month) issued a decree to his industrial captains: he wished to make his nation the market leader in shipbuilding. He knew the market intimately. Before entering politics, he studied economics and worked for a Japanese-owned freight-shipping business. Within a few years he was heading his own business, starting out with a fleet of nine ships.

Thus, by 2004, Kim Dae-jung's presidential vision was made real. His country's low-cost yards were winning 40 per cent of world orders, with Japan second with 24 per cent and China way behind on 14 per cent.

But shipbuilding is a horrendously hard market to plan. There is a three-year lag between the placing of an order and the delivery of a ship. With contracts signed, down-payments made and work under way, stopping work on a new ship is the economic equivalent of trying to change direction in an ocean liner travelling at full speed towards an iceberg.

Thus the labours of today's Korean shipbuilders merely represent the completion of contracts ordered in the fat years of 2006 and 2007. Those ships will now sail out into a global economy that no longer wants them.

Maersk announced last week that it was renegotiating terms and prices with Asian shipyards for 39 ordered tankers and gas carriers. One of the company's executives, Kristian Morch, said the shipping industry was in uncharted waters.

More...

* Visit Vesseltracker

As he told the global shipping newspaper Lloyd's List only last week: 'You have a contraction of oil demand, you have a falling world economy and you have a contraction of financing capabilities - and at the same time as a lot of new ships are being delivered.'

Demand peaked in 2005 when, with surplus tonnage worldwide standing at just 0.7 per cent, ship owners raced to order, fearing docks and berths at major shipyards would soon be fully booked. That spell of 'panic buying' has heightened today's alarming mismatch between supply and demand.

Keith Wallis, East Asia editor of Lloyd's List, says, 'There was an ordering frenzy on all types of vessel, particularly container ships, because of the booming trade between Asia and Europe and the United States. It was fuelled in particular by consumer demand in the UK, Europe and North America, as well as the demand for raw materials from China.'

Cranes at Singapore Dock stand idle, waiting for work

Cranes at Singapore Dock stand idle, waiting for work

Orders for most existing ships to be delivered within the next six to nine months would be honoured, he predicted, and the ships would go into service at the expense of older vessels in the fleet, which would be scrapped or end up anchored off places like southern Malaysia.

But, says Wallis, 'some ship owners won't be able to pay their final instalments when the vessels are completed. Normally, they pay ten per cent down when they order the ship and there are three or four stages of payment. But 50 to 60 per cent is paid on delivery.'

South Korean shipyard Hanjin Heavy Industries last week said it had been forced to put up for sale three container ships ordered at a cost of £60 million ($100 million) by the Iranian state shipping line after the Iranians said they could not pay the bill.

'The prospects for shipyards are bleak, particularly for the South Koreans, where they have a high proportion of foreign orders. Whole communities in places like Mokpo and Ulsan are involved in shipbuilding and there is a lot of sub-contracting to local companies,' Wallis says.

'So far the shipyards are continuing to work, but the problems will start to emerge next year and certainly in 2011, because that is when the current orders will have been delivered. There have hardly been any new orders in the past year. In 2011, the shipyards will simply run out of ships to build.'

Christopher Palsson, a senior consultant at London-based Lloyd's Register-Fairplay Research, believes the situation will worsen before it gets better.

'Some ships will be sold for demolition but the net balance will be even further pressure on the freight rates and the market itself. A lot of ship owners and operators are going to find themselves in a very difficult situation.'

The current downturn is the worst in living memory and more severe even than the slump of the early Eighties, Palsson believes.

'Back then the majority of the crash was for tankers carrying crude oil. Today we have almost every aspect of shipping affected - bulk carriers, tankers, container carriers... the lot.

'It is a much wider-spread situation that we have today. China was not a major player in the world economy at that time. Neither was India. We had the Soviet Union. We had shipbuilding in the United Kingdom and Europe.

'But then, back in those days the world was a very different place.'

Goniec Króla

Kiedy nadchodzi kryzys najlepiej przeznaczyć wszystkie oszczędności na zapasy żywności (mąka, cukier, woda, konserwy). Ja to Wam Mówię.
_________________
w_Królestwie_TV
http://www.metrykakoronna.org.pl/
#zdejmijMaske i #wyjdźZchaty

Manix

Co do tych frachtowcow to by sie to zgadzalo z moimi obserwacjami z zeszlego tygodnia.
Przejezdzalem obok Containerterminal HHLA Hamburg tam jest zupelnie pusto nic sie nie dzieje przez ten caly teren mozna spokojnie zobaczyc Elbe (Labe) kiedys to bylo zupelnie niemozliwe bo pietrzyly sie tam zaraz przy ogrodzeniu kontenery na wysokosc kilku pieter.

W sklepach jak naraze jeszcze pustek nie widac chaciaz da sie zauwazyc ze cos jest nie tak jak powino, np. w realu tam gdzie do tej pory byl duzy asortymet przypraw i sosow z roznych stron swiata to teraz na calej dlugosci regalow ustawili keczup w litrowych opakowaniach.
Asortymet czekolady tez sie skurczyl i nie sa regaly wypelnione na calej szegokosci tylko w niektorych przypadkach z tylu sa towary podparte pustymi kartonami co kiedys bylo nie do pomyslenia.

Ale jak ktos nie zwraca na to uwagi to zadnej zmiany nie zauwazy.

Mam pytanie czy ktos z was zauwazyl juz cos niepokojacego w swoim otoczeniu?

Prrivan

Jeden dzień-cztery samobójstwa wśród członków światowej elity finansowej:

http://www.rense.com/general87/suicides.htm

Cytat:

Four Economic Figures Dead...'Suicides'...
Dead Guys Tell No Tales
From Catherine Austin Fitts
Solari.com/blog
9-16-9

Rockefeller & Co. CEO Dies From Gunshot Wound
Catherine and News & Commentary, September 15, 2009 at 10:09 pm
By Charles Stein

James McDonald, chief executive officer of New York investment firm Rockefeller & Co., died Sunday, apparently from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, according to the Bristol County district attorney's office in New Bedford, Massachusetts.

McDonald was found in a car behind an auto dealership in Dartmouth, Massachusetts, said Gregg Miliote, a spokesman for the district attorney's office. He appeared to have shot himself, though the matter is still under investigation, Miliote said.

Financier Finn Casperson Dead in "Apparent" Suicide
Catherine and News & Commentary, September 15, 2009 at 9:09 pm

By Kim LaCapria

Ex-CEO of Beneficial Corp. Finn H.W. Casperson was found dead in an apparent suicide behind an office building in Westerly, Rhode Island.

Casperson, 67, was discovered dead of what appeared to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound on September 7th, after police were asked to "check on" him. Casperson came from a wealthy family and moved with powerful people, and he was known for his political influence, fundraising and philanthropy.

Blagojevich Fundraiser Found Dead
Catherine and News & Commentary, September 15, 2009 at 8:09 pm

By Jesse Solomon and Justin Lear

Police are investigating the death of the former chief fundraiser for ex-Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich as a "death-suicide," an Illinois mayor said Sunday.

Financier Christopher Kelly told police shortly before he died Saturday that he took an "overdose of drugs," said Dwight Welch, mayor of Country Club Hills, Illinois.

Country Club Hills police found several drugs in Kelly's black 2007 Cadillac Escalade, but they were not sure yet whether they were prescribed, Welch said. Country Club Hills is about 27 miles south of Chicago.

Kelly had recently undergone surgery and was taking drugs following the operation, Welch said. Welch said he did not know which drugs Kelly was taking.

Kelly, 51, of Burr Ridge, Illinois, was pronounced dead at Stroger hospital in Cook County at 10:46 a.m. Saturday, hospital spokesman Marcel Bright told CNN.

Newport Beach Financier Danny Pang Dies at 42
Catherine and News & Commentary, September 15, 2009 at 6:09 pm

By Ruben Vives and Louis Sahagun

Newport Beach financier Danny Pang died early Saturday at a local hospital, according to the Orange County coroner's office. The cause of death has not been determined and an autopsy is planned for Sunday, said Larry Esslinger, supervising deputy coroner.

Police officers were dispatched to Pang's home in the 2600 block of Crestview Drive about 3:30 p.m. Friday on a "medical assistance call," said Sgt. Doug Jones of the Newport Beach Police Department.

Pang was pronounced dead at Hoag Memorial Hospital at 5:12 a.m. Saturday, Esslinger said. He had no further details.

The 42-year-old Pang has been accused by the government of operating a Ponzi scheme and of taking at least $83 million in inflated fees, salary and loans from his investment firm before it was seized by federal regulators in April. He had denied wrongdoing.

Wiedziałem że uwielbiają symbolikę ale żeby czterch facetów tego samego dnia dokładnie 9 minut po pełnej godzinie... Shocked

hanuman

Cytat:

Kryzys walutowy. Jak go rozpoznać?

Autor: zezowaty Zorro

Nic prostszego, zobaczysz jak zablokują ci rachunek w banku. Tak. Kryzys walutowy jest wtedy, kiedy wszyscy widzą że jest. Jak go przewidzieć? Nic prostszego, tysiące speców na foreksie robi to na okrągło, od lat, i ciągle im się nie udało Smile

Niestety sytuacja tym razem nie wygląda tak różowo, jest trochę inaczej, a ktokolwiek wpiera ci, że będzie jak zwykle, jest albo naiwny, albo naganiacz.

Wpis jest zainspirowany dwoma mailami. Pierwszy od Simona modela, który raportuje za rense.com, że w Stanach w ciągu ostatnich dni wystąpiła swoista epidemia samobójstw bankowców, wybierających na swoje odejście tak intymne miejsca, jak opuszczony parking, albo zatrzymana budowa. Dla mnie informacją dnia w wczoraj była wiadomość o śmierci prezesa Rockco, Jamesa McDonalda (dla niewtajemniczonych to prywatny HF zarzadzający aktywami rodziny Rockefellerów).

Drugi mail od Ewy z Meklemburgii ślącej newsletter Erica Janszena z itulip.com. Co prawda USA nie całkiem przypominają dziś Argentynę, choć całkiem sporo, z czym zresztą zgadza się i zezowaty i Jeffrey Sachs. Jest więc nas trzech facetów i oczywiście Ewa. Postanowiłem w związku z tym oświecić całą resztę, jak rozpoznać kryzys walutowy w lollarze, bo że nadchodzi, to już mało kto wątpi, ale jeszcze mniej zdaje sobie sprawę, jak szybko może to nastąpić. Sam biję się w piersi, bo wcale nie byłem pewien, że lollar się teraz oberwie, mógł jeszcze pociągnąć... W każdym razie mam jeszcze jednego sprzymierzeńca, Jima Rogersa.

Skoro już wiadomo, że dolar się rozmiękczył, jak rozpoznać nadchodzący kryzys walutowy? Przecież jest go w obiegu tyle, jakieś 30 bilionów, czy więcej, że nie może, ot tak, z dnia na dzień się zawalić. Raczej może, jak każdy papier, pytanie tylko kiedy, za tydzień czy trzy lata. Oto niechybne znaki, po których to można rozpoznać. Odliczanie już się zaczęło.

Kurs walutowy do innych walut podstawowych (wykres)

Jak zawiadamiałem, lollar przerwał wsparcie na 0.700 i leci. Sflaczał. To niestety, poza wyrównaniem chwilowego bilansu handlowego (import drogi, eksport tani), ma liczne konsekwencje negatywne dla już pracowicie zgromadzonego długu. Nikt nie chce oszczędzać w miękkiej walucie. Warunek spełniony: pierwsza załamka inicjująca.

Cena złota jako alternatywnej waluty twardej (wykres)

Złoto potwierdziło właśnie skuteczne przebicie bariery 1000 i dalej ma otwartą drogę. Zwróć uwagę, że potwierdzenie odbyło się dziś na mocnej figurze odwróconej głowy z ramionami. Złoto nie powinno w przewidywalnej przyszłości spaść poniżej tej granicy. Warunek spełniony: lollar jest już bardzo miękki wobec złota.

Ujemny bilans kapitałowy (wykres)

Kapitał z USA ucieka od r. 2006, albo ujmując inaczej Amerykanie go eksportują, lokując w bezpieczniejszych miejscach i aktywach niż dolary. Warunek spełniony: czekamy na Godota.

Dodatni bilans obrotów bieżących (wykres)

Wyrównany bilans jest książkowym wzorcem. Niestety nie w tym wypadku. Przed jego wymuszonym powrotem na drogę cnoty trwała orgia zapożyczania, coraz szybciej. Bilans został sprowadzony na siłę do równowagi z powodu braku możliwości sfinansowania deficytu (wyschły kredyty a nie z powodu organicznego dążenia do równowagi). Prawdopodobnie jest lekko dodatni (na grafie lekko ujemny). Warunek zatem spełniony.

Stopy długoterminowe powyżej progu krytycznego (wykres)

Stopy krótkoterminowe obligacji(czerwone, 1 rok) pozostają - z powodu ogromnego choćby popytu (wszyscy chcą być na krótko) - praktycznie zerowe. Pozostanie tak raczej długo, bowiem podniesienie stóp od razu zadławi banki, o czym Benek wie doskonale. Liczy się zatem rozpiętość między stopą krótką i długą (niebieskie, 10 lat). Po przekroczeniu pewnej magicznej granicy długoterminowego długu po pierwsze nie da się rolować, bo odsetki o bilionowych długów zeżrą całe dochody, a po drugie (i ważniejsze) pożyczkodawcy przewidując taki obrót sprawy zwyczajnie zastrajkują i nie zechcą pożyczyć Benowi na żaden procent, więc sam sobie wydrukuje, co kończy definicję krachu walutowego. Gdzie jest ten magiczny punkt, nikt nie wie. Według zezowatego krytyczny spread leży na wykresie na zarysowanym kryzysowym plateau i wynosi ok. 5%. Warunek niespełniony, ale na najlepszej drodze. Chwilowa dezorientacja, polegająca na cofnięciu stóp w tym miesiącu polega na schizofrenicznym pędzie inwestorów we wszystkich kierunkach jednocześnie. W ostatnich dniach drożała ropa, złoto, giełda i obligacje, co w normalnej przyrodzie nigdy się nie zdarza. Na pewno się niebawem skończy i według zezowatego niczym dobrym. Stopy długie muszą wzrosnąć, podobnie jak musi spaść giełda, ale tymczasem może być inwersja z dozą perwersji i mass-propagandy Smile

)

Kończąc zatem ten krótki przegląd kryzysu walutowego na lolarze wypada zauważyć, że - wbrew zapewnieniom Herr Gauleitera, że aktywa dolarowe są bezpieczne - czeka nas jazda. Z pięciu wskaźników został tylko jeden, stąd ten pośpiech, nie mogłem przecież cyzelować tekstu i spóźnić się na przedstawienie Smile

wszystkie wykresy dostępne na stronie źródłowej : http://zezorro.blogspot.com/2009/09/kryzys-walutowy-jak-go-rozpoznac.html

zderzak

Cytat:

Amerykański rząd wydaje rocznie 75 mld dol. na sfinansowanie pracy służb wywiadowczych - ujawnił koordynator służb specjalnych w administracji prezydenta Baracka Obamy Dennis Blair.
Liczba ta została podana do wiadomości publicznej po raz pierwszy. Dotychczas amerykański rząd publikował tylko fragmentaryczne dane dotyczące budżetów poszczególnych agencji wywiadowczych, natomiast całkowite nakłady na służby specjalne utrzymywał w tajemnicy.

Zdarzały się jednak przecieki. Całkowity rachunek za działalność amerykańskiego wywiadu został omyłkowo opublikowany w 1994 r. i opiewał wówczas na 26 mld dol. Od tego czasu nastąpił więc gwałtowny wzrost kosztów utrzymania służb specjalnych.

Wywiad wojskowy, który w 1994 r. pochłaniał około 10 mld dol., dziś kosztuje amerykańskich podatników 25-30 mld dol.

Ujawniona przez Blaira kwota uwzględnia wydatki 16 amerykańskich agencji wywiadowczych, zatrudniających około 200 tys. osób, oraz wydatki Pentagonu na rozpoznanie wojskowe w strefach konfliktu, m.in. w Iraku i Afganistanie.

Jak powiadomił Blair, amerykańskie agencje wywiadowcze jako największe zagrożenia dla bezpieczeństwa wymieniają obecnie irański program nuklearny, nieobliczalne postępowanie Korei Północnej oraz rebelie prowadzone przez muzułmańskich bojowników, m.in. Al-Kaidę. Ich obawy budzi również modernizacja chińskiej armii oraz "surowcowa dyplomacja" Pekinu.

Jak komentuje agencja Reutera, Waszyngton znalazł się ostatnio pod presją Kongresu i rozmaitych organizacji pozarządowych, aby zwiększyć przejrzystość wydatków na służby specjalne.

ehhh ten onet hehehe nie wiedzialem gdzie to wkleic
http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/2043846,12,wyw.....,item.html

Prrivan

Złoto najdroższe w historii:

http://www.tvn24.pl/0,1619816,0,1,zloto-cenniejsze-niz-zloto,wiadomosc.html

Cytat:

1:09, 17.09.2009 /TVN CNBC Biznes
Złoto cenniejsze niż... złoto
CENY SUROWCA MOGĄ WZROSNĄĆ NAWET DO 2.000 DOL. ZA UNCJĘ

Złoto najdroższe w historii. Cena kruszcu na nowojorskiej giełdzie towarowej zbliżyła się do 1025 dolarów za uncję. Według Artura Krzymowskiego z Mennicy Polskiej, to nie koniec wzrostu wartości kruszcu. Wzrost ceny złota jest powodem silnego osłabienia dolara w stosunku do euro.
Po dwóch tygodniach niepewności, gdy notowania złota krążyły blisko psychologicznej bariery 1000 dolarów za uncję, w środę nastąpiło rozstrzygnięcie. Ceny wzrosły o 1,1 proc. do 1016,73 dolarów na koniec dnia. W czwartek rano wzrost ten był kontynuowany, a cena przebiła 1020 dolarów.

- Jeśli wziąć pod uwagę wzrost ceny złota z 1980 roku z 300 do 850 dolarów i obecną siłę nabywczą dolara, to cena uncji może wzrosnąć do około 2.000 dolarów - mówi w TVN CNBC Biznes Krzymowski.

Słaby dolar - drogie złoto

Równocześnie dalsza poprawa klimatu inwestycyjnego stała się pretekstem do osłabienia dolara w relacji do euro, co pośrednio wpłynęło na wzrost cen złota, a także miedzi i ropy.

Obecnie euro jest na drodze wzrostu do psychologicznej bariery 1,50 dolara, a czwartkowy kurs 1,4764 dolara znalazł się na najwyższym poziomie od września 2008 roku.

- Definitywne przełamanie bariery 1000 dolarów nie jest zaskoczeniem. Aktualna sytuacja na wykresie złota sugeruje możliwość bardzo szybkiego osiągnięcia poziomu 1100 dolarów - pisze na stronach internetowych Marcin R. Kiepas z X-Trade Brokers.

Cena złota będzie rosnąć do momentu, aż dolar przestanie tracić na wartości lub gdy banki centralne powrócą do bardziej restryktywnych warunków kredytowych - wyrokują eksperci.

A jak wygląda dolar to zobaczcie sami-to już nie jest spadek wartości,to pogrom.

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

davidoski

No nareszcie, ile można czekać...

_________________
The Truth Hurts
http://bankowaokupacja.blogspot.com

mieszkaniec_eurok

Manix napisał:

Mam pytanie czy ktos z was zauwazyl juz cos niepokojacego w swoim otoczeniu?

Żydzi przy ścianie płaczu kiwają się niby tak samo ale jakby w drugą stronę Wink

.

A tak na serio: przecież tu u nas nie widać żadnych istotnych oznak kryzysu. Ludzie żyją jak żyli, firmy, które były bogate dalej się bogacą, a te które jakoś cipały dalej jakoś cipią. Ludzie, których stać na mieszkania nadal je kupują po chorych cenach, tych których nie było stać, nadal nie stać. Firmy państwowe nadal szastają publiczną kasą na prawo i lewo... Szkoda gadać.

JA

Firmy państwowe? Co w Polsce jeszcze jest państwowe? Może inaczej, co jest jeszcze polskie :>?

davidoski

To co rząd właśnie chce sprywatyzować - KGHM, Lotos, Orlen i jeszcze parę.
_________________
The Truth Hurts
http://bankowaokupacja.blogspot.com

mieszkaniec_eurok

JA napisał:

Firmy państwowe? Co w Polsce jeszcze jest państwowe? Może inaczej, co jest jeszcze polskie :>?

Oprócz gigantów typu PKO, trochę firm lokalnych - jakieś zakłady miejskie oczyszczania gówna czy placówki np oświatowe. Ale miałem na myśli głównie urzędy państwowe te na górze jak i różne regionalne przypierdółki.

Na przykład Ministerstwo Finansów robi sobie serwerownię.
http://gazetadom.pl/nieruchomosci/1,73497,4730180.html

Cytat:

Do końca 2013 roku powstanie Centrum Przetwarzania Danych Ministerstwa Finansów
...
Sama inwestycja ma kosztować ponad 100 mln zł.
...
- Budowa centrum jest konieczna. Obecnie ministerstwo ma serwerownie w kilkunastu miastach Polski. Korzystamy z wynajmowanych pomieszczeń, płacąc po 2 tys. zł za metr kw. To są ogromne koszty - tłumaczy Tadeusz Wydra.
....
W pierwszym etapie w serwerowni pracę znajdą 72 osoby: głównie informatycy, inżynierowie systemów, specjaliści w zakresie zarządzania bazami danych.

Przypomnę tylko, że onet zakończył budowę własnej serwerowni i wydali "zaledwie" 78 mln*. A porównaj teraz ruch jaki jest na onecie (miliardy odsłon miesięcznie) i na jakichstam stronach miniserialnych (szacuję góra kilkaset milionów na wszystkich stronach ministerstw, nie tylko MF). Pieniądze są! Nie ma żadnego kryzysu.

A stawka 2 tys za metr to akurat tanio. Na metrze kwadratowym serwerowni zmieści się safa 19" wypchana serwerami. W obudowach 1U wejdzie ponad 40 serwerów. W drogich obudowach typu blade, które ochoczo kupują firmy państwowe wejdzie nawet ponad 80 serwerów. Poza tym w tej cenie jest już zwykle nadzór techniczny nad budynkiem, pomieszczeniem, łączami, ochrona i takie tam. A tu kurtyzany ministerialne będą musieli zatrudniać dodatkowy personel oprócz samych administratorów i specjalistów od oprogramowania/baz itd.

PS. Banki masowo obniżają oprocentowanie lokat. Jeszcze nie widać żadnego kryzysu w PL.

*) wg http://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/article/223.....mln_zl.htm

Yussuf

Niektórym puszczają już nerwy Wink

Cytat:

W ramach protestu wylali w banku tonę gnojówki
Francuscy rolnicy z Forez w departamencie Loary wylali w czwartek trzy cysterny mleka i tonę gnojówki do oddziału banku Credit Agricole, który jest we Francji głównym kredytodawcą na wsi. Producenci mleka we Francji zapowiadają kontynuowanie w piątek akcji protestacyjnych przeciwko niskim cenom skupu mleka.
Kilkudziesięciu rolników w ramach akcji, przeprowadzonej pod egidą Stowarzyszenia Niezależnych Producentów Mleka (APLI), wylało mleko i gnojówkę do siedziby banku w miasteczku Boen-sur-Lignon w dzień targowy. Jak podkreślił jeden z uczestnik akcji, Thierry Derory cena płacona producentom w trudnym obszarze górskim "nie przekracza 5 euro za tysiąc litrów, co jest kwotą bez znaczenia".

W całej Europie od zeszłego tygodnia rolnicy wylewają mleko w proteście przeciwko zbyt niskim jego cenom. 3 mln litrów mleka - co odpowiada całej dziennej produkcji w Walonii - rozlali w środę rolnicy na polach w okolicach Ciney w południowej Belgii.

Według danych strajkujących producentów mleka, w proteście przeciwko cenom skupu i zapowiedzi stopniowego zniesienia limitów produkcji, tzw. kwot mlecznych, bierze udział 40 tys. rolników z trzech krajów UE. Domagają się rewaloryzacji płaconych im cen przez zmniejszenie kwot mlecznych o 5 proc., czego Bruksela odmawia.

Unijna komisarz ds. rolnictwa Mariann Fischer Boel uważa, że realizacja postulatów rolników byłaby odejściem od uzgodnionej w ubiegłym roku przez ministrów rolnictwa państw UE reformy Wspólnej Polityki Rolnej. Zakłada ona stopniową liberalizację kwot mlecznych i całkowitą rezygnację z kwotowania w 2015 roku. Producentom mleka Fischer Boel w czwartek zaproponowała dodatkową pomoc.

Strajk mleczny we Francji ogłosiły 10 września APLI i Organizacja Producentów Mleka (OPL). W czwartek m.in. około 150 rolników wylało na pola około ośmiu ton mleka w Isigny-sur-Mer w Normandii, a inne akcje trwały cały dzień w Pirenejach, gdzie w gaskońskiej gminie La Bastide Clairence mleko rozdawano za darmo.

_________________
Homo liber sum.