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waha123




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PostWysłany: 16:12, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Re: http://prawda2.info/viewtopic.php?p=48197#48197 Odpowiedz z cytatem

JackBlood napisał:


To zupełnie nie tak Smile W czasie kryzysu, kiedy przestaje mieć wartość papier i trzeba z majątkiem uciekać w coś pewniejszego to na wartości zyska złoto, srebro i wszystkie artykuły zaspokajające podstawowe potrzeby człowieka. Zaraz znajdzie się masa specjalistów którzy z 3 pierścionków będą robić 4. Tego typu złoto nie będzie aż tak powszechnie przyjmowane jako zapłata, a jeżeli już to po znacznie niższej cenie niż sztabki z certyfikatem mennicy.


Będzie, bo kobiety poczują się wreszcie docenione Laughing ...i to nie 3 ale aż 4 kobiety Laughing
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goldbug




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PostWysłany: 17:28, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

@otelodreiP

Nie bądź niepoważny. Po tej silnej ostatnio korekcie mierzonej w dolarach przecena złota w PLN wcale nie była tak znacząca. Po drugie zgodnie z tym co mówisz, nawet umacnianie się dolara i osłabianie złotówki też nie powinno być dla złota w PLN tak niekorzystne. Po trzecie w USA jeżeli chodzi o metale szlachetne w postaci fizycznej jest wręcz paniczny popyt, nie notowany od wielu lat. Wielu dealerów bulionu ma problemy z wyrabianiem się z dostawami. W przypadku fizycznego srebra poważni inwestorzy wręcz nie mają wielokrotnie szans na realizację zamówień. Ceny są manipulowane papierowymi instrumentami pochodnymi nie mającymi pokrycia w surowcu bazowym.



Kto wie czy tak irracjonalne zachowanie rynku nie jest wręcz sygnałem, że coś jest nie tak coś się dzieje pod powierzchnią ...

Złoto jest do hedgingu na wypadek, gdyby prezentowane wyżej wykresy niewypłacalności systemu miały się sprawdzić za parę miesięcy, rok dwa a nie jakieś kilkadziesiąt lat. Do tradingu mam lepszych kandydatów - ETF Ultrashort financial SKF Smile Czyli shortowanie sektora finansowego w USA Razz. Jak narazie mnie nie zawodzi Smile.
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forrest_




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PostWysłany: 19:31, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

US bank 'to fail within months'

Cytat:
The global financial crisis is set to get worse, with a large US bank likely to collapse in the next few months, a former IMF chief economist has warned.

Kenneth Rogoff's comments came as shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sank on a report that the home lenders would, in effect, be nationalised.

Despite hopes that the US economy had turned the corner, Mr Rogoff claimed it was "not out of the woods".

"I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he said.

"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months," said Mr Rogoff, who held the IMF role between 2001 and 2004.

"We're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks."
Speaking at a conference in Singapore, Mr Rogoff, now an economics professor at Harvard, forecast that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would "probably" not exist in their present form in a few years.

"We have to see more consolidation in the financial sector before this is over."

On Monday, shares of Fannie Mae fell more than 22%, or $1.76, to close at $6.15. Shares of Freddie Mac fell almost 25%, or $1.46, to $4.39.

'Wrong move'

Shares in Freddie and Fannie first fell sharply last month on fears that they would run out of money to fund their business, forcing the US government to take radical steps to ease the panic.

The two firms are the backbone of the US mortgage market as almost all US lenders rely on them to buy their mortgages in order to access the funds to lend to consumers.

As mortgage guarantors, they must pay out when homeowners default on their loans.

With the housing market across the US crumbling, their finances have come under severe stress.

Problems in the US housing sector prompted the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to 2% earlier this year.

But Mr Rogoff said the Fed was wrong to cut interest rates as "dramatically" as it did.

"Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States," he added.

źródło: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7569903.stm
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Manix




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PostWysłany: 19:46, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

@goldbug

Zgadzam sie z toba w calej rosciaglosci i jak ktos nie wiezy w istniene takiego fenomenu jakim jest krach na gieldzie to najlepiej bedzie jak sie o tym przekona na wlasnej skorze.

A tak na marginesie jeszcze odemnie to:
Po pierwsze jak by gielda byla przewidywalna to by juz ja dawno zamkneli.
A po drugie to najlepiej na gieldzie sie sprawdza robic dokladnie na odwrot to co oficjalnie zalecaja najwieksi guru gieldy.

Bo nie trzeba miec duzej wyodrazni zeby sie wczuc w role tej super elity i majac pod kontrola wszystkie opiniotwurcze media i praktycznie nieograniczone mozliwosci pieniezne w myslach przeanalizowac jakie do daje mozliwosci.
Mozna sterowac stadem owieczek doslownie jak sie chce i zawsze sie zarabia czy gielda idzie w gore czy w dol.

np. Pisze sie najpierw gospodarka wschodnia traci na sile i spada zapotrzebowanie an rope no i juz ceny ropy leca w dol a pozniej nagle sie podaje sie ze zapasy ropy w USA sa puste a zima zanosi sie na ciezka w tym roku i juz ceny rosna.
W ten sposob przy odpowiedniej synchrnizacji news z obstawianiem pozycji na rynku terminowym (Future) przy 10% wzroscie czy spadku podwaja sie stawke.
I w taki sposob z milionow robi sie miliardy.

A krach napewno bedzie to jest pewne jak amen w paciezu i elita napewno na tym nie straci tylko zyska ale zanim to nastapi zarobia jeszcze kupe szmalu i zgromadza gory zlota.
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otelodreiP




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PostWysłany: 19:48, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

goldbug napisał:
@otelodreiP

Nie bądź niepoważny. Po tej silnej ostatnio korekcie mierzonej w dolarach przecena złota w PLN wcale nie była tak znacząca. Po drugie zgodnie z tym co mówisz, nawet umacnianie się dolara i osłabianie złotówki też nie powinno być dla złota w PLN tak niekorzystne. Po trzecie w USA jeżeli chodzi o metale szlachetne w postaci fizycznej jest wręcz paniczny popyt, nie notowany od wielu lat. Wielu dealerów bulionu ma problemy z wyrabianiem się z dostawami. W przypadku fizycznego srebra poważni inwestorzy wręcz nie mają wielokrotnie szans na realizację zamówień. Ceny są manipulowane papierowymi instrumentami pochodnymi nie mającymi pokrycia w surowcu bazowym.




spoko luz maryna ale chyba ty jestes niepowazny lub celowo wprowadzasz ludzi w blad.

Przecena zlota
W EUR szczyt 650 ostatni dolek 530
W USD szczyt 1020 ostatni dolek 780
W PLN szczyt 2300 ostatni dolek 1800

Matematyke zaliczyles za maslo i jajka na tych studiach ?


Ja tylko sugeruje ze nie po to zrobili "lustrzanke" na eu ze by to byla tylko korekta.
Siedze juz w tym kilka lat i wiem kiedy odwrocenie trendu oraz znam przeplyw kapitalu ktory to wywoluje.
Nie potrzeba tu zadnych ekomistow bo jest to proste jak budowa cepa.

PLN jest udupiony na maxa przy tak wysokich stopach traci tyle co korona czeska(13% dotychczas- wszedzie kurwa te 13 widac ze to sprawka masonow hehe) .
NBP zapowiada ich obnizke od przyszlego roku a to oznacza odplyw kapitalu z europy srodkowej.
Jak myslisz gdzie ulokuja ten kapital ?

Jak bedzie taki kryzys o jakim wieszcycie to nic nam nie pomoze nawet zaladowna bron.
Wiec lepeij tak nie myslec i nie przyciagac nieszczescia.Mowiac po staropolsku :

Nie wywoluj wilka z lasu.

.p s Na waszych oczach USA staja sie Chinami a wy dalej nic nie kumacie, jakbyscie grali w cywilizacje to byscie wiedzieli dlaczego heh.
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Manix




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PostWysłany: 20:17, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

otelodreiP napisal
Cytat:

Jak bedzie taki kryzys o jakim wieszcycie to nic nam nie pomoze nawet zaladowna bron.
Wiec lepeij tak nie myslec i nie przyciagac nieszczescia.Mowiac po staropolsku :

Nie wywoluj wilka z lasu.

Nie badz takim katastrofista.
Krach na gieldzie jest zecza normalna i niema co popadac w paranoje.

Jak juz bedzie po wszystkim i wszystkie owieczki uwieza ze akcje to cos zlego i mozna na nich tylko stracic a pieniadze to tylko na ksiazeczce oszczednosciowej moga byc bespieczne elita zaopatrzy sie znowu w akcje za grosze i zacznie gre od poczatku tak bylo przeciez zawsze nierozumiem dlaczego teraz by mialo byc inaczej ?
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moonwalk




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PostWysłany: 20:46, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

jest roznica miedzy krachem a korekta
krach byl w historii amerykanskiej gieldy raz
http://tinyurl.com/5dnh8v
Kod:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

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goldbug




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PostWysłany: 20:48, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

A kto kupuje na samej górce ... ja nie pisze o korekcie ze 1030$, tam zbierali ostatni leszcze. Ja mówię o sytuacji z początkiem ostatniego odbicia na dolarze o którym tak debatujemy. A przecież ono zaczeło się w samej końcówce lipca i spowodowało mocną przecenę na złocie, jednak w złotówkach wcale nie przejawiło się dużym spadkiem zaledwie w okolicach 100 zł. Jak dla mnie to, żaden powód do rozpaczy zważając na fakt, tej anomalii w której ludzie próbują się desperacko hedgować złotem fizycznym tak jak w USA, a papierowe złoto zalewa rynek. Właśnie jeżeli sam nawet przewidujesz silna przecenę na PLN, to umacnianie się dolara wobec złotego jest też w stanie skompensować potencjalne obsuwy na złocie.

Ok. Nie zamierzam się spierać. Długoterminowo czas pokaże kto miał rację. Jak dla mnie USA jest bankrutem i nie pociągną za wiele. Ubezpieczenie w postaci złota jest jak najlepszym pomysłem, tak samo jak nie żałuje się wydanych pieniędzy na np. ubezpieczenie mieszkania przed pożarem. Poza tym to prawdziwy pieniądz i wróg banków centralnych i całego lichwiarskiego systemu monetarnego. Do tradeowania są lepsze rzeczy, szczególnie obecnie na gieldzie amerykańskiej. Mnóstwo akcji do soczystego przyshortowania.
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otelodreiP




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PostWysłany: 20:55, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

ja katastrofista ? i popadam w paranoje LOL czlowieu

Przeczytaj co inni pisza bo ja pisze ze moze byc powrot do lat 90 w Polsce. za sprawa slabej zlotowki.
Krachu na gieldzie tez nie bedzie bo za duzo sie o nim gada w mediach.
Nowa hossa nastanie za jakies pol roku na gpw. Podwojny szczyt i wtedy moze doczekasz sie krachu.Na razie zapomnij.
Aktualnie obiecujaco zapowiadaja sie zblizajace sesje jesli 2550 wytrzyma kilka dni to mozemy zobaczyc nawet 3200 w nastepnych tygodniach.

dobranoc
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Manix




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PostWysłany: 21:37, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

moonwalk napisal
Cytat:

est roznica miedzy krachem a korekta
krach byl w historii amerykanskiej gieldy raz


Jak nie tak dawno elita rozdmuchala bezwartosciowe akcje firm internetowych i bezrozumne owieczki myslaly juz ze teraz to juz nikt nie bedzie musal pracwac i wszyscy bedziemy bogaci a pozniej wszystko walnelo z hukiem i NASDAQ COMPOSITE spadl z prawie 5000 punktow na troche ponad 1000 punktow i 3/4 akcji potracilo 90% wartosci to wedlug ciebie tez tylko korekta a nie krach mozesz to tak nazywac jak chcesz Wink
http://indizes.wallstreet-online.de/nasd.....mp;grid=on

otelodreiP napisal
Cytat:

Krachu na gieldzie tez nie bedzie bo za duzo sie o nim gada w mediach.


Jeszcze wiecej jest tych w mediach ktorzy uspokajaja ze niema obaw zadnego krachu nie bedzie sytuacja opanowana itp.

Cytat:

Aktualnie obiecujaco zapowiadaja sie zblizajace sesje jesli 2550 wytrzyma kilka dni to mozemy zobaczyc nawet 3200 w nastepnych tygodniach.


Pisales do tej pory w niektorych sprawach bardzo madrze ale teraz to sorry jak uwazasz ze polski WIG 20 ktory stoi obecnie przy Kurs zamknięcia: 2,554.12 ma az taki wplyw na gielde swiatowa ze pociagnie za soba cala gielde USA no i reszty swiata to powaznie ciebie traktowac nie mozna.
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otelodreiP




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PostWysłany: 21:50, 20 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

Manix napisał:
otelodreiP napisal
Cytat:

Aktualnie obiecujaco zapowiadaja sie zblizajace sesje jesli 2550 wytrzyma kilka dni to mozemy zobaczyc nawet 3200 w nastepnych tygodniach.


Pisales do tej pory w niektorych sprawach bardzo madrze ale teraz to sorry jak uwazasz ze polski WIG 20 ktory stoi obecnie przy Kurs zamknięcia: 2,554.12 ma az taki wplyw na gielde swiatowa ze pociagnie za soba cala gielde USA no i reszty swiata to powaznie ciebie traktowac nie mozna.


OMG manix nie rozbrajaj mnie prosze cie ... bo trafisz do elitarnego grona przebudzonych i lar.
Co ty masz mnie za idiote ?

Po pierwsze napisalem JESLI a jesli sie to stanie to oczywiscie ze tylko i wylacznie za sprawa wallstreet reszte sobie dospiewaj.Dobra pomoge ci bo pewnie znowu wyciagniesz glupi wniosek.
A wiec jesli S&P500 wytrzyma na poziomie 1260 kilka dni mozemy sie spodziewac rajdu rowniez na gpw. lepiej teraz ?
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Manix




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PostWysłany: 01:22, 21 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

@otelodreiP No to mnie uspokoiles bo nigdy nic nie wiadomo i jak mawial André Kostolany
"Niema drugiego takiego miejsca na swiecie gdzie przypada tylu idiotow na metr kwadratowy jak na gieldzie" Wink
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goldbug




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PostWysłany: 03:59, 21 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

Kapitalnie opisany mechanizm manipulacji rynkiem złota i srebra i prawdziwych przyczyn obecnej przeceny

http://seekingalpha.com/article/91357-th.....er-markets
Cytat:
There is a huge demand for both gold and silver right now in India and North America. North American shops are completely bare of silver. Indian shops are empty of both silver and gold. Even the Indian banks don't have any gold or silver. The big western bullion banks, based in New York and London, control both the gold and silver trade. Reports from India are that they are refusing to extend Indian bank lines of credit, forcing the small banks to deliver to clients, collect money, and pay down lines of credit, before being allowed to take delivery of another gold or silver shipment. This is very abnormal. Normally, if a banker’s bank knows that its customer-bank has firm orders, it would extend the smaller bank a bigger line of credit. Not now.

By refusing to extend lines of credit, the big bullion banks are essentially rationing a very thin supply. Most physical silver, for example, is being reserved for industrial and fabrication use, and investors are simply not able to get any, without waiting for months. Investor oriented shops are bare, and the U.S. Mint has suspended coin production. All available supply seems to be reserved for industrial users. You cannot substitute paper claims for real silver, in industrial use, because paper doesn’t have the physical properties of silver. So, it seems that all available supply is being diverted to industrial users, and, to a lesser extent, aside from the squeeze on lines of credit, also to jewelry fabricators. But, investors are left out in the cold. They can accept paper claims, or nothing. The most interesting mistake that the manipulators have made is in not supplying the U.S. Mint, which has run out of silver, proving that there is a severe shortage.

Meanwhile, by refusing to extend Indian bank lines of credit, Indian jewelry demand for both gold and silver is being stymied. India is not being allowed to drain away precious metals, in the amounts that are warranted, given the low prices and the numbers of unfilled orders that are sitting on desks in India. World bullion banks, in other words, are managing deliveries of physical gold and silver to artificially reduce the quantities delivered, under the excuse that the “Indians have run down their credit lines.”

The happiest fact of bullion bankers’ lives is that western markets are, with the exception of some fabrication and industrial demand, almost 90% paper based. The huge COMEX futures market almost never sees an ounce of real silver or gold ever change hands. It is all paper, shuffled back and forth. These paper markets are being flooded with paper based "claims" to alleged gold and silver, supposedly being held in big bank vaults in London and New York City. The market is overwhelmed with paper claims, and the big bullion banks (maybe, with the Federal Reserve providing the money?) are paying big bucks to secondary derivatives dealers to get them to lease this artificially created “gold and silver.” In a normal market, one who leases a thing of value must pay for it. But, now, derivatives dealers are being paid to lease both gold and silver. Then again, it may not be a thing of value, if it is fake…

That being said, the paper claims may have a lot of value, whether or not they are fake. Derivatives dealers can write futures contracts, options, etc., according to CFTC rules, because paper "claims" to vault-stored silver and gold can be used as the legally mandated "cover" for futures contracts. To understand the nature of paper claims, we must travel back in time, for a moment, to a class action against Morgan Stanley (MS). According to the complaint, Morgan Stanley claimed that it bought physical silver, on behalf of various clients, and was storing it, in safe-keeping, in its vault in New York. Allegedly, Morgan Stanley defrauded its clients from Feb. 19, 1986, and Jan. 10, 2007. According to the complaint, it never bought any silver, but, all the while, continued to charge clients big fees for storing the imaginary metal. Morgan Stanley is one of the biggest investment banks in the world. It is one of the major players in precious metals. Yet, according to the lawsuit, the paper claims to vaulted silver it issued to clients was nothing more than a lie. One of Morgan Stanley’s defenses, interestingly enough, was that everything it did simply followed “standard industry practices.” For more information, see here.

Apparently, it is standard Wall Street industry practice to send people monthly statements promising that the firm is storing physical precious metals in a vault, charge for the storage, but really never buy or store any real metal. Morgan Stanley eventually settled the case for many millions of dollars in damages, rather than going to trial. That tends to indicate that they were guilty, as charged. I believe, with good reason, as you shall soon see, that most of the paper claims to silver and gold, now floating about, and collapsing prices, are cousins to the Morgan Stanley silver claims.

Logic tells us that the so-called metal must be imaginary, and I will soon tell you why. Yet, for some reason, in spite of class actions like the one described above, no one demands to see it. The majority assumes that banks, like Morgan Stanley, are honest, and would not issue fake paper claims. But, if they did it before, they are probably doing it again. That could be the key to precious metal market manipulation.

If you are a huge bank, with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of short positions, and you know the price is going to explode, you can do one of two things. You can be honest, like most individual and institutional short sellers must be, and cover your short position by buying back at market prices even though you may take losses to do so. Or, you can be dishonest. The majority of banks and hedge funds don’t have the option of being dishonest, even if they want to be.

However, what if you happen to be a primary dealer of the Federal Reserve, or the ECB, or the Bank of England, or all three? If you are, then you happen to have overwhelming knowledge and control of the marketplace, because your divisions are deeply enmeshed in the global financial trading system, and your powerful computers allow you to analyze all markets in a matter of minutes or even seconds. You have an ownership stake in all the big markets like the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, COMEX, NYMEX, and the London Metals Exchange.

Unlike a small or medium sized institutional investor, you are in a position to be dishonest, if you choose to be, and in a position to profit from your dishonesty. Because all orders flow, at one point or another, through your firm or one of a handful of other big wire houses, you will know where the stop-loss triggers of non-affiliated long and short sellers are. With this in hand, you are ready to manipulate any market, especially small commodity markets like gold and silver.

The first thing you need to do is issue large numbers of false paper claims to allegedly stored gold and silver in your vault. This gold and silver really doesn’t exist, but it doesn’t matter because you are a big prestigious bank, and no one questions you when you say it is in your vault. You offer these claims for “lease” to any secondary dealer willing to take you up on it. You don’t want to sell them outright, because then you might eventually be faced with a demand for the real metal, as Morgan Stanley was. You don’t actually have enough real metal to cover these claims, so, you want to make sure that the operation takes place in a limited time frame. That’s why you “lease” the claims for a term of months. If you find that small dealers are afraid to lease such claims, you encourage them by subsidizing the leases with a negative interest rate. In other words, you pay them to accept your alleged gold and silver.

This is exactly what is happening in the precious metals market, right now. Gold and, especially, silver leases are being subsidized. As of a week ago, if you are a dealer, and you lease gold or silver, from the bullion banks, incredibly enough, THEY WILL PAY YOU! At the end of this article, I have attached a chart, showing the current negative lease rates for the various metals. Dealers who lease claims to fake metal, are able to issue futures contracts and other derivatives. The fact that they hold contractual claims to metal means they will have fulfilled the “cover” requirement imposed by their federal regulator, CFTC. The CFTC has never bothered to audit a vault to see if the gold or silver is really there, so you’ve got nothing to worry about. You’re a big bank! You say it is there. Everyone believes you, just like Morgan Stanley’s customers believed them. You might even be Morgan Stanley.

At any rate, you initially issue a lot of claims to fake metal, and so many futures contracts are written, in a very short time period, that they flood the market on exchanges like COMEX and the London Metals Exchange, where almost all the transactions are on paper, and real metal rarely changes hands. Meanwhile, if you are the big bullion bank, you know what you are doing. You issue just enough subsidized precious metal paper to automatically trigger stop-loss orders. The price starts going down as the sell orders are filled. That triggers yet more stop-loss orders, and the process becomes one of dominos, falling one after another, until the price collapses. If the operation is successful, and the collapse is big enough, market confidence is destroyed, on a wide scale.

The destruction of market sentiment won’t last forever. You can’t fool all the people all of the time. But, temporarily, having been burned badly, investors refuse to buy. Buying may still be happening on the real market, as it is, in both America and India, in gold shops. True physical metal will still be in severe shortage, so the metal will disappear quickly, as the price goes down below where true market forces should be bringing it to reach equilibrium between supply and demand. But, real market buyers look to the COMEX and the London Metals Exchange, because they think they are honest exchanges, even though they may not be.

Prices on those exchanges will determine prices charged in shops, and when the price goes down deeply, there isn’t enough product to go around, because everyone buys it. In other words, supply and demand go into disequilibrium, there isn’t enough supply to meet the demand at such low price points, so delays in delivery, as well as outright shortages result. That is what is happening, right now, in the physical gold and silver market. Not only to retail investors, but, also, even to the U.S. Mint, which has suspended production of gold coins, and is rationing silver coins.

At any rate, when market confidence is damaged sufficiently, we can move in. We unwind our new short positions in the futures market, by buying back huge number of long positions at very low prices on the COMEX. We also unwind an exponentially larger number of positions inside the shadow world of "dark pools", which are little known secretive private exchanges, controlled by the big banks. It ended up costing us some money, but not a lot compared to the money we’ve avoided losing. We’ve paid subsidies on the leases, but we’ve never actually had to buy the gold or silver, because there isn’t any available, and none in our vault. This is the way that a group of big bullion banks could induce a price collapse to unwind hundreds of billions of dollars worth of potential losses, or position themselves to go long on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of potential profits.

Contrary to the pundits at CNBC, Bloomberg, etc., the price of gold really has nothing to do with the value of the dollar or the value of oil. It doesn’t matter what the dollar is worth, in relation to euros, pounds sterling or Zimbabwee money. It only matters what supply and demand factors exist for gold. Yes, the demand will fall a bit if the price goes up, for example, in euros, because the euro has depreciated. But, what really counts is not what the euro, yen or dollar price is, but, rather, whether or not there is enough demand to soak up the available supply.

Gold is priced in dollars, but, so long as people holding either dollars, euros, yen, yuan or Zimbabwean money, are willing to pay whatever price gold is selling for, in an honest market, the price should rise. Obviously, enough people are willing to pay for gold and silver, at the previous $978 and $19.50 per troy ounce price, because the U.S. Mint could not source enough metal at those price, and had to suspend coin production.

This proves that people are more than willing to fork over, in whatever currency they are using, the previous prices for gold and silver, in such quantities, that a shortage was already existing, before the price collapse, especially in the silver market. It is true that people in poorer countries like India, might have back on their consumption.

But, while they were cutting back, demand and consumption of gold in North America, including Canada and the USA, was soaring. For example, before it suspended production of bullion coins, due to shortages, the U.S. Mint’s statistics show that it was printing 2.5 times as many gold coins, and almost 4 times as many silver bullion coins, this year, compared to last year. Gold and silver bullion, in bar form, was also flying off North American retail shelves.

Bottom line: Enough people were buying, when the price was high, to exhaust the supply. Basic economics says that, in a free market, this means the price must rise.

But we don’t live in a world of free markets. Instead, we are living in an Orwellian 1984 double-speak world. Welcome to the world of Fed/PPT, where 2+2=5, blue is yellow, and black is white. All things are as they say they are, rather than as they really must be. Welcome to the world of a controlled business media, where the pundits will do anything and say everything to convince you to forget your math, and your eyesight. No, they tell you. It really isn’t so. What you’re seeing isn’t the way it is. Believe, instead, what we tell you. We can do it! We have special skills. There is a new world order. We can make 2+2=5. Just give us your money, and we’ll show you how!

But, let’s return to reality. Right now, virtually no North American precious metals dealer can give you a firm delivery date on large quantities of silver. They have no stock to sell. This means demand is robust. On Friday, as the COMEX gold price was collapsing, the U.S. Mint suspended gold bullion coin production because it cannot source enough gold bullion! That could not happen if bullion banks were selling claims to real physical metal into the marketplace. Indeed, the Mint began rationing silver bullion coins two months ago, when it started having trouble sourcing silver bullion. Word from the Perth Mint in Australia is that it is taking weeks or months to take physical delivery of gold and silver, even though investors are already supposed to own that metal. Supposedly, it is simply being kept in the Mint's vault for safe storage. But, it is getting harder to take it out of “storage”. Meanwhile, as previously stated, Indian gold and silver dealers, wholesalers and banks all have empty vaults. None of this can happen if demand is down, and supply is abundant.

We have a disconnect between reality markets and fantasy markets. The COMEX and London Metals Exchange are fantasy markets controlled by the big bullion banks. They must be engaged in market manipulation, because nothing can explain a big price collapse, in the midst of widespread shortages and robust demand. A group of big financial institutions, deeply enmeshed in the global trading system, and heavily involved in the gold and silver market, must be deliberately inducing temporary panic, for their own purposes. These malevolent characters will eventually be able to buy back their short positions at low prices, and, possibly, also, even collect a significant long position. The process is a continuing one, and hasn’t stopped yet. On Friday, for example, the subsidy for leasing gold and silver was raised to very high levels.

It is obvious what they are doing. More important, however, is why? What does it mean? Well, the PPT bank executives are generally “people in the know” about financial events, before they actually happen, sue to close relations with regulators like the Federal Reserve, and FDIC. They folks are so desperate to cover short positions, that they are willing to spend a billion or so dollars, subsidize precious metal leases, to collapse the market, and destroy investor confidence. But, why? We know that the Federal Reserve, like other central banks, sees gold as a rival to the dollar. But, that’s not enough, because they’ve never attacked precious metals with such ferocity as now, and, if the Fed were directly involved, they could probably supply real metal.

If something terrible is about to happen in the financial world, the losses that big banks would take on their precious metal short positions would put most of them into bankruptcy. Remember the words of Warren Buffett. Derivatives are the financial world’s weapons of mass destruction. Precious metals futures short positions are highly leveraged transactions that could cost hundreds of billions if the price of gold were to suddenly explode.

We can guess that the main players here are big powerful Wall Street and/or High Street investment banks who work closely with the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of England. These people are privy to the information needed to carry out a massive manipulation as described above. No one else is. Since most of the collapse happens on the COMEX, we can assume that most of the manipulation is being done by New York based investment banks.

Wall Street’s investment banks control most of the world's gold and silver markets. They are also entrenched in the overall mesh of all financial markets. Making matters worse, because of the 1987 President’s Executive Order on Working Markets, they are authorized to work together, and in conjunction with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, to manipulate markets without fear of criminal prosecution. They know exactly where the stop-loss orders are, and how much flooding of paper claims for gold and silver would be needed to trigger them. They are, therefore, perfectly positioned to carry out the nefarious scheme I have outlines. The ultimate aim, of course, would be to destroy investor confidence, by collapsing the price for a few weeks. This would allow them to unload their own exposure at a very low cost, while the majority of market participants are temporarily shell-shocked, and in retreat.

As noted above, they are not using real gold or silver to do this. That implies that this particular attack on gold was not authorized by the Federal Reserve. They’ve never had any real silver and have used paper claims for years to manipulate that market. But, gold has often been supplied out of the U.S. hoards at Fort Knox, West Point, or the NY Fed. I suspect all three have had their gold hoard so heavily loaned and swapped out, that there is little or no physical gold left to play with. That’s why the Federal Reserve has been pushing for the IMF gold sales. The vaults are probably already filled with IOUs from the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc. Perhaps, that is why the Treasury Department lists total U.S. gold holdings as "gold and gold swaps", and refuses to disclose details how much consists of real gold and how much consists of swap IOUs (loaned out gold). But, anyway, the lack of physical gold probably implies that the Federal Reserve is not involved directly, because they probably still have enough to flood the market for a week or two.

But, it’s not cheap to manipulate markets. It will probably cost over a billion dollars to subsidize the negative lease rates. The only logical reason to spend such a huge amount of money, is if you are going to get an even bigger benefit from doing so. They must be very worried about losing far more. Once again, that implies that some VERY bad economic news is about to be released. Skeptical? How much worse can the economy get? It can get much worse! So, what’s in store? A series of huge bank failures, maybe? IndyMac collapsed two weeks ago. Are we going to see the collapse of Washington Mutual (WM)? National City Bank (NCC)? Someone else?

I don’t know. But, I do know this. The FDIC will not have enough cash to make good on its insurance pledges, if they fail. The FDIC only has $37 billion left in its trust fund, after paying off IndyMac depositors. Between its two major divisions, WaMu has total deposits of about $204 billion. National City has about $101 billion. Could FDIC turn to the Federal Reserve for a quick loan? Not a chance! The Fed has its own problems. It has already polluted its balance sheet with some $450 billion in low value and absolutely worthless mortgage paper that its client banks wanted to get rid of.

Depositors might wait months for their money, while Congress is petitioned to approve the sale of more Treasury bills. This delay would be likely to cause other depositors to make a run on other banks, creating a domino effect. Then, more banks might fail. More bank failures will require yet more dollars, and cause more delays in making depositors whole. At the very least, the sudden issuance of $300 billion new dollars would stimulate massive inflation. Under such circumstances, gold could be expected to explode to the $2 - $3,000 per troy ounce range, within a matter of a few weeks or months.

click to enlarge



Source: Kitco

Update: I just found out that Kitco, one of the biggest precious metals dealers in North America, just posted the following notice:

IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults. (italicized emphasis added)

Sounds like a severe shortage to me, when someone will take your money, and then, even if it takes two years to deliver, and you cancel, they force you to pay a penalty!
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nobody




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Goldbug lubisz klikać o 5.00 rano, czy nadajesz z drugiego krańca globu Razz
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Szczerze polecam dla znajacych angielski kanadyjska strone Centrum Badań Nad Globalizacją - http://globalresearch.ca i poniższy artykuł prasowy zamieszczony tam:


"How to Conceal Massive Economic Collapse" - Jak zatuszować olbrzymi ekonomiczny krach

by Ellen Brown, http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9828

Last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had just announced record losses, and so had most reporting corporations. Unemployment was mounting, the foreclosure crisis was deepening, state budgets were in shambles, and massive bailouts were everywhere. Investors had every reason to expect the dollar and the stock market to plummet, and gold and oil to shoot up. Strangely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300 points, the dollar strengthened, and gold and oil were crushed. What happened?

It hardly took psychic powers to see that the Plunge Protection Team had come to the rescue. Formally known as the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, the PPT was once concealed and its very existence denied as if it were a matter of strict national security. But the PPT has now come out of the closet. What was once a legally questionable "manipulator" of markets has become a sanctioned stabilizer and protector of markets. The new tone was set in January 2008, when global markets took their worst tumble since September 11, 2001. Senator Hillary Clinton said in a statement reported by the State News Service:

"I think it’s imperative that the following step be taken. The President should have already and should do so very quickly, convene the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. That’s something that he can ask the Secretary of the Treasury to do. . . . This has to be coordinated across markets with the regulators here and obviously with regulators and central banks around the world."1

The mystery over what was going on with the dollar the first week in August was solved by James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, who wrote on August 7:

"[T]he banking problems in the United States continue to mount, while the federal government’s deficit continues to soar out of control. . . . So what happened to cause the dollar to rally over the past three weeks? In a word, intervention. Central banks have propped up the dollar, and here’s the proof.

"When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

"On July 16, 2008 . . . , the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. . . . So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others."2

Just as central banks manipulate currencies in concert, so gold can be manipulated by massive selling of central bank reserves. Oil and any other market can be manipulated as well. But markets can be manipulated by only so much and for only so long without fixing the underlying problem. There is more bad news coming down the pike, news of such magnitude that no amount of ordinary manipulation is liable to conceal it.

For one thing, roughly $400 billion in ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) have or will reset between March and October of this year. Assuming 3 to 6 months for strapped debtors to actually hit the wall with their payments, a huge wave of defaults is about to strike, continuing through March 2009 – just in time for the next huge wave of resets, in option ARMs.3 Option ARMs are loans with the option to pay even less than just the interest on the loan monthly, increasing the loan balance until the loan reaches a certain amount (typically 110% to 125% of the original loan balance), when it resets. The $800 billion credit line recently opened to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be not only tapped but tapped out, at taxpayer expense. The underlying problem is little discussed but impossible to repair – a one quadrillion dollar derivatives scheme that is now imploding. Banks everywhere are facing massive writeoffs, putting the whole banking system on the brink of collapse. Only public bailouts will save it, but they could bankrupt the nation.

What to do? War and threats of war have been used historically to distract the population and deflect public scrutiny from economic calamity. As the scheme was summed up in the trailer to the 1997 movie "Wag the Dog" --

"There’s a crisis in the White House, and to save the election, they’d have to fake a war."

Perhaps that explains the sudden breakout of war in the Eurasian country of Georgia on August 8, just 3 months before the November elections. August 8 was the day the Olympic Games began in Beijing, a distraction that may have been timed to keep China from intervening on Russia’s behalf. The mainstream media version of events is that Russia, the bully on the block, invaded its tiny neighbor Georgia; but not all commentators agree. Mikhail Gorbachev, writing in The Washington Post on August 12, observed:

"What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenseless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity. . . . The Georgian leadership could do this only with the perceived support and encouragement of a much more powerful force."4

Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network against Weapons and Nuclear Power, commented in OpEdNews on August 11:

"The U.S. has long been involved in supporting ‘freedom movements’ throughout this region that have been attempting to replace Russian influence with U.S. corporate control. The CIA, National Endowment for Democracy . . . , and Freedom House (includes Zbigniew Brzezinski, former CIA director James Woolsey, and Obama foreign policy adviser Anthony Lake) have been key funders and supporters of placing politicians in power throughout Central Asia that would play ball with ‘our side’. . . . None of this is about the good guys versus the bad guys. It is power bloc politics . . . . Big money is at stake . . . . Both parties (Republican and Democrat) share a bi-partisan history and agenda of advancing corporate interests in this part of the world. Obama’s advisers, just like McCain’s (one of his top advisers was recently a lobbyist for the current government in Georgia) are thick in this stew."5


Brzezinski, who is now Obama’s adviser, was Jimmy Carter’s foreign policy adviser in the 1970s. He also served in the 1970s as director of the Trilateral Commission, which he co-founded with David Rockefeller Sr., considered by some to be the "master spider" of the Wall Street banking network.6 Brzezinski later boasted of drawing Russia into war with Afghanistan in 1979, "giving to the Soviet Union its Vietnam War."7 Is the Georgia affair an attempted repeat of that coup? Mike Whitney, a popular Internet commentator, observed on August 11:


"Washington’s bloody fingerprints are all over the invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili would never dream of launching a massive military attack unless he got explicit orders from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After all, Saakashvili owes his entire political career to American power-brokers and US intelligence agencies. If he disobeyed them, he’d be gone in a fortnight. Besides an operation like this takes months of planning and logistical support; especially if it’s perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning of the Olympic games. (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon planners must have been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for months in advance. Nothing was left to chance."


Part of that careful planning may have been the unprecedented propping up of the dollar and bombing of gold and oil the week before the curtain opened on the scene. Gold and oil had to be pushed down hard to give them room to rise before anyone shouted "hyperinflation!" As we watch the curtain rise on war in Eurasia, it is well to remember that things are not always as they seem. Markets are manipulated and wars are staged by Grand Chessmen behind the scenes.
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Manix




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@goldbug jak tak dlej bedzie to dojdzie do takiego absurdu jak to bylo za komuny.
Ze zaczna zlotem handlowac koniki.
Ci z was co maja powyzej 40lat to napewno pamientaja tych panow z pod Pewexu co skupowali dolary grubo powyzej ceny Panstwowej.
To teraz zaczyna tak byc ze zlotem wystarczy zabaczyc za jakie ceny schodzi zloto na eBay w USA
http://cgi.ebay.com/999-PURE-GOLD-10-GRA.....rms=39%3A1|66%3A2|65%3A13|240%3A1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

Papierowe zloto jest o wiele tansze Laughing
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Jak system runie to będzie jak za okupacji i tuż po. Walutą będą papierosy, wódka... kot ( będzie znowu kosztował dwa worki pszenicy... że o rowerze nie wspomnę) Wink
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JackBlood napisal
Cytat:

Jak system runie to będzie jak za okupacji i tuż po. Walutą będą papierosy, wódka... kot np. będzie znowu kosztował dwa worki pszenicy... że o rowerze nie wspomnę Wink

No tez juz o tym pisalem Laughing
viewtopic.php?p=47826#47826

A jaka jest nerwowa sytuacja w handlu zlotem mozna zobaczyc na dzisejszym przykladzie
wczoraj wykres wygladal jak EKG czlowieka z atakiem serca dzisaj od polowy dnia dzisaj zastosowali reanimacje Wink
i wykres pnie sie do gory.
http://tools.boerse-go.de/rohstoffe/
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otelodreiP




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Manix napisał:


A jaka jest nerwowa sytuacja w handlu zlotem mozna zobaczyc na dzisejszym przykladzie
wczoraj wykres wygladal jak EKG czlowieka z atakiem serca dzisaj od polowy dnia dzisaj zastosowali reanimacje Wink
i wykres pnie sie do gory.
http://tools.boerse-go.de/rohstoffe/


Zadnej nerwowej sytuacji nie ma to zwykla korekta techniczna.
Nie bede wam mowil co jest tego przyczyna bo to nie miejsce do roztrzasania takich spraw.
Tak jak mowilem zloto osiagnie pozom 850 i zostanie sprzedane albo 930 maksymalnie i napewno zostanie sprzedane.sprowadza ja do ceny 650 najpierw pozniej znacznie nizej.
ostatnia szansa rowniez do zakupu usd/pln
Przy poziomie 218 radze kupowac az do poziomu 214 (moze tyle spasc ale nie musi)
Pewna inwestycja na co najmniej 4 lata.
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otelodreiP
Pytanko do Ciebie: Jaka Twoim zdaniem jest wartość derywatyw (opcji, kontraktów futures i swapów) które nagle zamiast przynosić właścicielom miliardowe zyski przynoszą miliardowe straty?
Miliardy? Bilion? A może 1000 razy więcej? Smile

"Guns and Butter"
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008
"The Bush World Economic Depression"
http://kpfa.org/archives/index.php?show=13
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otelodreiP




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JackBlood napisał:
otelodreiP
Pytanko do Ciebie: Jaka Twoim zdaniem jest wartość derywatyw (opcji, kontraktów futures i swapów) które nagle zamiast przynosić właścicielom miliardowe zyski przynoszą miliardowe straty?
Miliardy? Bilion? A może 1000 razy więcej? Smile

"Guns and Butter"
Wednesday, August 13th, 2008
"The Bush World Economic Depression"
http://kpfa.org/archives/index.php?show=13
http://webstertarpley.gnb.130808.patrz.pl


wartosc wyrazona w czym ?
pozatym ich straty to czyjes zyski
nic w naturze nie ginie moj przyjacielu tylko zmienia wlasciciela lub stan energetyczny.
Jesli tego nie wiesz to wciaz zyjesz propaganda o miliardowych stratach.

Jesli bedziemy pograzeni w recesji to gwarantuje ci ze europa pograzy sie jesczcze bardziej niz usa
ze wzgledu na deficyt surowcow energetycznych oraz idiotyczny system limitow i koncesji.
Caly kapital pojdzie do USA na wall street i dlatego usa wyjdzi e najszybciej z tego kryzysu.
Tak zostalo to ustalone i teraz powoli wykonuja swoj plan.Co rowna sie ze stalym spadkiem zlota i umocnieniu dolara.
USD Bedzie najmocniejsza waluta tak jak zlotowka do wczorajJesli by sie to nie stalo
to chiny zaczelyby kontrolowac swiat a do tego elita nie chce dopuscic.
Dziecko jeszcze nie doroslo do dominacji nad swiatem nie wtym stuleciu.

Jesli sie z czyms niezgadzasz co napisalem to czekam na riposte
tylko nie odylaj mnie prosze do jakichs innych stron nie mam czasu czytac
jakiegos ekonomicznego belkotu zwlaszcza po angielsku..
Forex jest otwarty nadal za 2 godziny sesja azjatycka czas zarobic troche grosza sprzedajac eurodalra
i odkupujac rano na poziomie 14810.
W piatek po poludniu bedzie w okolicach 14950. gdzie prawdopodobnie znowu sprzedam ale to sie zobaczy.
I tym o to prostym sposobem zarobie 100% zainwestowango kapitalu tylko w jeden dzien.
jutro mozecie sobie sprawdzic czy mialem racje.
Dobranoc.
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JackBlood




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PostWysłany: 23:07, 21 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

Dolar > najpierw hiperinflacja > potem AMERO
www.amero.cnbc.patrz.pl
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Manix




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PostWysłany: 14:12, 22 Sie '08   Temat postu: Odpowiedz z cytatem

@otelodreiP No i jakos sie twoje przewidywania na dzisaj nie potwierdzily kurs otwarcia byl rano przy 1,49 teraz spadlo juz na 1,4813
I mowie i powtarzam jakby gielda byla przewidywalna to by juz ja dawno zamkneli.
Jest tez naukowo udowodnine ze szympans z cyrku jest tak samo dobry jak nie lepszy od wysoko oplacanych fonds menadzerow ktorzy w 80% nawet indeksu nie potrafia pobic Laughing
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otelodreiP




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Manix napisał:
@otelodreiP No i jakos sie twoje przewidywania na dzisaj nie potwierdzily kurs otwarcia byl rano przy 1,49 teraz spadlo juz na 1,4813
I mowie i powtarzam jakby gielda byla przewidywalna to by juz ja dawno zamkneli.
Jest tez naukowo udowodnine ze szympans z cyrku jest tak samo dobry jak nie lepszy od wysoko oplacanych fonds menadzerow ktorzy w 80% nawet indeksu nie potrafia pobic Laughing


taki byl plan Smile

na razie caly czas trzymam shorta na eurusd bo popyt gdzies spierdolil
ropa spada i wszystko bruzdzi na razie moj short jet wart ok 100 pipsow i jak ropa zacznie dalej spadc to cel jest znacznie nizej i nie mam zamiaru walczyc z trendem.
Gielda da sie przewidziec na jeden ruch do przodu to takie bramki logiczna spotykasz ja i wtedy jest decyzja traderow jedziemy w gore lub w dol.Po za tym to jest forex tu wszystko moze sie zdarzyc bo dzien sie jeszce nie skonczyl.
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Manix




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Cytat:

Po za tym to jest forex tu wszystko moze sie zdarzyc bo dzien sie jeszce nie skonczyl.

No wlasnie wszystko sie moze zdazyc Wink
A tak nawiasem to jakich nazedzi uzywasz do analizy?
Czy uzywasz standartowego panelu forex?
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